NBA
Daily Fantasy NBA Adjusted Matchups and Pace for Friday 5/7/21

Matchups matter in daily fantasy NBA, and it can be hard to keep everything -- pace, defensive rating, individual matchups -- tidy, so I wanted to fix that by dumping all the data into one place for ease of use.

So every day, I'll be posting some information on each game for the NBA main slate.

That'll include things like opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings for each team. I'll also look at opponent-adjusted paces based on the team-level as well.

And to go a step further, I'll provide defense-versus-position (DvP) values based on FanDuel points per minute allowed to each position. The way that'll work is to adjust on the individual level. This means looking at each player's total fantasy points per minute mark to figure out an expected output in a game and comparing it to what actually happened. Holding a superstar and a role player to the same FanDuel-point-per-minute mark isn't quite the same. These values will adjust for expectation.

These values now include only data since the NBA trade deadline.

Adjusted Offensive Rating and Opponent Defensive Rating

This table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Team Opp Over/
Under
Spread Implied
Total
Adj.
Offensive
Rating
Rank Opp Adj.
Defensive
Rating
Rank
MILHOU232.0-17.0124.50117.87122.930
PHINO227.5-9.0118.25110.918108.77
MIAMIN224.5-6.5115.50116.410120.026
SASAC226.0-4.5115.25111.117121.228
PORLAL221.5-8.5115.0123.12102.33
DALCLE219.0-9.5114.25116.59120.927
BOSCHI222.0-4.0113.0114.312114.621
PHXNY218.0-7.0112.50123.41101.12
CHAORL216.5-7.5112.0102.924119.825
SACSA226.04.5110.75112.514114.118
UTAHDEN216.5-4.0110.25118.46106.25
NOPHI227.59.0109.25106.722102.94
CHIBOS222.04.0109.0106.323108.78
MINMIA224.56.5109.0108.821114.117
HOUMIL232.017.0107.50102.826111.912
LALPOR221.58.5106.5098.828114.620
DENUTAH216.54.0106.25119.25100.31
NYPHX218.07.0105.50114.611114.822
CLEDAL219.09.5104.75101.827112.414
ORLCHA216.57.5104.5094.929112.013

Adjusted Pace and Expected Pace, Offensive Rating, and Points

This table shows each team's adjusted pace and adjusted opponent pace to find expected pace. Expected offensive rating combines each team's adjusted offensive rating and the opponent's adjusted defensive rating. Combining expected pace and expected offensive rating gives us expected points.

This table is sorted by matchup in terms of fastest average pace.

Team Opp Adj.
Pace
Rank Opp
Adj.
Pace
Rank Expected
Pace
Expected
Offensive
Rating
Expected
Points
MIL HOU 102.7 6 101.3 8 102.0 120.4 122.7
HOU MIL 101.3 8 102.7 6 102.0 107.4 109.5
PHI NO 99.7 12 101.3 7 100.5 109.8 110.3
NO PHI 101.3 7 99.7 12 100.5 104.8 105.3
MIA MIN 95.0 30 105.9 1 100.4 118.2 118.7
MIN MIA 105.9 1 95.0 30 100.4 111.4 111.9
POR LAL 99.8 11 98.1 19 99.0 112.7 111.5
LAL POR 98.1 19 99.8 11 99.0 106.7 105.6
SA SAC 97.8 20 99.6 13 98.7 116.2 114.6
SAC SA 99.6 13 97.8 20 98.7 113.3 111.8
BOS CHI 99.4 14 97.3 21 98.3 114.4 112.5
CHI BOS 97.3 21 99.4 14 98.3 107.5 105.7
UTAH DEN 98.2 17 96.8 26 97.5 112.3 109.5
DEN UTAH 96.8 26 98.2 17 97.5 109.7 107.0
CHA ORL 96.8 25 98.2 18 97.5 111.3 108.6
ORL CHA 98.2 18 96.8 25 97.5 103.4 100.8
DAL CLE 97.0 23 96.9 24 97.0 118.7 115.1
CLE DAL 96.9 24 97.0 23 97.0 107.1 103.9
PHX NY 96.6 27 96.4 28 96.5 112.2 108.3
NY PHX 96.4 28 96.6 27 96.5 114.7 110.7

Player-Level Adjusted FanDuel Points per Minute by Position

This table is presented to be viewed from an offensive perspective (i.e. the defensive marks reflect the offense's opponent).

The matchups shown are their opponent's defensive FanDuel-point-per-minute mark adjusted for individual opponents faced. League-wide ranks are in parenthesis. Because outliers are the primary matchups worth targeting and avoiding, green cells indicate top-five easiest matchups for the offense, and red indicate bottom-five.

Teams are sorted alphabetically for ease of use.

Offense Defense PG SG SF PF C
BOS CHI 0.99 (17) 0.86 (16) 0.83 (16) 0.93 (14) 1.13 (17)
CHA ORL 1.00 (20) 0.93 (27) 0.89 (25) 1.02 (27) 1.21 (26)
CHI BOS 0.97 (11) 0.86 (17) 0.81 (7) 0.88 (6) 1.12 (16)
CLE DAL 0.99 (18) 0.85 (12) 0.71 (1) 0.91 (11) 1.07 (7)
DAL CLE 1.07 (25) 0.88 (20) 0.88 (23) 0.98 (19) 1.12 (15)
DEN UTAH 0.97 (13) 0.81 (6) 0.83 (13) 0.80 (1) 1.08 (11)
HOU MIL 0.99 (16) 0.89 (21) 0.88 (24) 0.91 (10) 1.14 (21)
LAL POR 0.98 (14) 0.83 (10) 0.91 (26) 1.02 (25) 1.07 (8)
MIA MIN 1.13 (30) 0.90 (24) 0.92 (27) 1.01 (24) 1.08 (10)
MIL HOU 1.09 (28) 0.94 (29) 0.98 (29) 0.93 (15) 1.31 (28)
MIN MIA 0.93 (5) 0.88 (19) 0.74 (3) 0.90 (8) 1.08 (9)
NO PHI 0.92 (2) 0.81 (7) 0.73 (2) 0.97 (18) 1.05 (4)
NY PHX 0.94 (6) 0.79 (3) 0.81 (9) 0.88 (4) 1.07 (6)
ORL CHA 0.89 (1) 0.85 (14) 0.88 (21) 1.03 (28) 1.08 (12)
PHI NO 1.08 (27) 0.85 (13) 0.77 (4) 1.00 (22) 1.14 (18)
PHX NY 0.95 (9) 0.80 (4) 0.88 (22) 0.82 (2) 1.14 (19)
POR LAL 0.93 (4) 0.79 (2) 0.82 (12) 0.99 (21) 1.05 (3)
SA SAC 1.04 (23) 0.91 (25) 0.83 (14) 0.92 (12) 1.17 (24)
SAC SA 0.95 (8) 0.87 (18) 0.83 (15) 0.85 (3) 1.22 (27)
UTAH DEN 1.00 (19) 0.77 (1) 0.84 (17) 0.98 (20) 0.96 (1)

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