NBA
Daily Fantasy NBA Adjusted Matchups and Pace for Tuesday 5/4/21

Matchups matter in daily fantasy NBA, and it can be hard to keep everything -- pace, defensive rating, individual matchups -- tidy, so I wanted to fix that by dumping all the data into one place for ease of use.

So every day, I'll be posting some information on each game for the NBA main slate.

That'll include things like opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings for each team. I'll also look at opponent-adjusted paces based on the team-level as well.

And to go a step further, I'll provide defense-versus-position (DvP) values based on FanDuel points per minute allowed to each position. The way that'll work is to adjust on the individual level. This means looking at each player's total fantasy points per minute mark to figure out an expected output in a game and comparing it to what actually happened. Holding a superstar and a role player to the same FanDuel-point-per-minute mark isn't quite the same. These values will adjust for expectation.

These values initially included last season's data but now show only stats from the 2020-21 season.

Adjusted Offensive Rating and Opponent Defensive Rating

This table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Team Opp Over/
Under
Spread Implied
Total
Adj.
Offensive
Rating
Rank Opp Adj.
Defensive
Rating
Rank
MIL BKN 241.0 -2.0 121.50 120.2 6 115.2 25
BKN MIL 241.0 2.0 119.50 120.5 4 109.1 8
NO GS 233.5 -2.0 117.75 115.3 10 108.0 5
SAC OKC 228.5 -4.5 116.50 114.0 12 115.0 22
GS NO 233.5 2.0 115.75 107.1 23 116.4 27
LAC TOR 221.5 -9.5 115.50 122.2 1 112.3 14
PHX CLE 214.5 -13.0 113.75 119.4 7 115.1 23
OKC SAC 228.5 4.5 112.0 94.8 30 124.5 30
CHA DET 214.5 -6.5 110.50 108.6 19 113.0 17
MIA DAL 215.5 -3.5 109.50 107.5 22 113.1 18
TOR LAC 221.5 9.5 106.0 111.5 13 110.8 10
DAL MIA 215.5 3.5 106.0 116.0 8 108.8 7
DET CHA 214.5 6.5 104.0 103.7 25 113.0 16
CLE PHX 214.5 13.0 100.75 98.8 27 108.4 6

Adjusted Pace and Expected Pace, Offensive Rating, and Points

This table shows each team's adjusted pace and adjusted opponent pace to find expected pace. Expected offensive rating combines each team's adjusted offensive rating and the opponent's adjusted defensive rating. Combining expected pace and expected offensive rating gives us expected points.

This table is sorted by matchup in terms of fastest average pace.

Team Opp Adj.
Pace
Rank Opp
Adj.
Pace
Rank Expected
Pace
Expected
Offensive
Rating
Expected
Points
MIL BKN 102.1 6 102.1 5 102.1 117.7 120.2
BKN MIL 102.1 5 102.1 6 102.1 114.8 117.2
SAC OKC 101.0 9 102.3 4 101.7 114.5 116.4
OKC SAC 102.3 4 101.0 9 101.7 109.6 111.5
NO GS 99.5 13 102.4 3 101.0 111.6 112.7
GS NO 102.4 3 99.5 13 101.0 111.8 112.8
LAC TOR 97.5 26 99.6 12 98.6 117.3 115.6
TOR LAC 99.6 12 97.5 26 98.6 111.1 109.5
CHA DET 98.8 17 97.8 23 98.3 110.8 108.9
DET CHA 97.8 23 98.8 17 98.3 108.4 106.5
PHX CLE 97.0 27 97.7 25 97.3 117.2 114.1
CLE PHX 97.7 25 97.0 27 97.3 103.6 100.8
MIA DAL 96.2 29 97.8 22 97.0 110.3 107.0
DAL MIA 97.8 22 96.2 29 97.0 112.4 109.0

Player-Level Adjusted FanDuel Points per Minute by Position

This table is presented to be viewed from an offensive perspective (i.e. the defensive marks reflect the offense's opponent).

The matchups shown are their opponent's defensive FanDuel-point-per-minute mark adjusted for individual opponents faced. League-wide ranks are in parenthesis. Because outliers are the primary matchups worth targeting and avoiding, green cells indicate top-five easiest matchups for the offense, and red indicate bottom-five.

Teams are sorted alphabetically for ease of use.

Offense Defense PG SG SF PF C
BKN MIL 0.96 (12) 0.87 (18) 0.89 (24) 0.94 (12) 1.10 (13)
CHA DET 1.00 (22) 0.89 (23) 0.79 (3) 1.03 (29) 1.11 (16)
CLE PHX 0.90 (1) 0.78 (1) 0.79 (2) 0.89 (5) 1.08 (10)
DAL MIA 0.92 (2) 0.85 (9) 0.83 (8) 0.93 (10) 1.04 (4)
DET CHA 0.96 (15) 0.87 (17) 0.92 (29) 1.01 (28) 1.09 (12)
GS NO 1.03 (27) 0.89 (22) 0.87 (17) 0.95 (14) 1.10 (14)
LAC TOR 0.95 (11) 0.87 (20) 0.87 (15) 0.99 (24) 1.10 (15)
MIA DAL 0.94 (7) 0.84 (6) 0.83 (7) 0.93 (11) 1.08 (11)
MIL BKN 0.93 (5) 0.85 (8) 0.84 (10) 0.99 (25) 1.19 (24)
NO GS 0.96 (13) 0.86 (15) 0.87 (16) 0.99 (26) 1.17 (22)
OKC SAC 1.01 (24) 0.93 (28) 0.88 (20) 0.97 (20) 1.18 (23)
PHX CLE 0.97 (18) 0.87 (21) 0.88 (19) 0.97 (21) 1.11 (18)
SAC OKC 1.00 (23) 0.92 (26) 0.96 (30) 1.03 (30) 1.15 (21)
TOR LAC 0.97 (17) 0.86 (12) 0.78 (1) 0.86 (2) 1.05 (5)

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