4 NBA FanDuel Studs to Target on Wednesday 4/21/21
Basketball is the most consistent sport for daily fantasy purposes.
A top slugger in baseball will have his fair share of 0-for-4 days, and an elite fantasy football player is at risk of having games where his team's offense as a whole is shut down. A high-salaried NBA stud is generally going to get his, though. With so many possessions in a game providing opportunities to produce, top fantasy basketball options will be posting high scores just about every night.
While this consistency puts us in a good position to identify top plays, it also means you can't afford to miss when you're paying a heavy salary to roster someone. Even with strong value plays in your lineup, getting a dud from a stud is likely going to leave your lineup lacking.
Let's get right into it and look at which top players should be the focal points of your lineups today.
Malcolm Brogdon, PG, Indiana Pacers
FanDuel Salary: $7,500
Honestly, Malcolm Brogdon could pass as both a "stud" and a "value play" tonight, given his salary and situation.
With a salary well under $8,000, Brogdon and the Indiana Pacers will be taking on the
tanking struggling Oklahoma City Thunder. Over their last 30 games, no team in the Association has allowed more fantasy points to the point guard position than Oklahoma City, according to FantasyPros.
Pace should be the name of the game in this contest, as the Pacers and Thunder play at the fifth- and sixth-fastest pace in the league, per NBA.com. That helps explain why, despite missing a plethora of key rotation players, the Pacers possess the slate's third-highest implied total, according to numberFire's Matchup Heatmap.
In his last six games, Brogdon has racked up 39 or more FanDuel points five times, including outputs of 43.6, 52.3, and 59.3.
Though a number of other players are questionable, Indiana is certain to be without both Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner, who were already declared out. In limited minutes with those two off the court this season, Brogdon has seen his usage rate jump by 7.1 percentage points, per RotoGrinders.
The icing on the cake here is that Brogdon won't see absurdly high roster rates on a loaded slate like the one we have tonight. So we don't have to sweat the chalk by rostering him.
Stephen Curry, PG, Golden State Warriors
FanDuel Salary: $10,200
As of now, there are no low-salaried value options that I'm dying to roster at point guard, and as a result, I'm totally fine paying up twice at the position. Enter Stephen Curry.
Right now, Curry's makes the Carolina Reaper look like it's your regular everyday pepper. He's basically a fire-breathing dragon from downtown. In fact, over his last six games, Steph is averaging 43.7 real-life points, 5.7 rebounds, and 5.0 assists while shooting 56.6% from the field, 55.1% from three (on 16.3 attempts per game!!), and 91.7% from the line. Hot Diggity damn.
From a fantasy perspective, Curry's been more consistent than explosive. He's amassed 47 or more FanDuel points in 11 straight, and that includes eight outputs greater than 50. Over this last six-game stretch, he's put up 53.1-plus five times. That'll play.
Along with the bout between the Sacramento Kings and Minnesota Timberwolves, this matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Wizards is tied for the highest over/under on the slate...by a whopping 10 points. Golden State'simplied total of 120.5 trails only Sacramento. If this isn't the perfect game environment for another Curry explosion, I don't know what is.
Paul George, SG, Los Angeles Clippers
FanDuel Salary: $9,400
In his last four games with Kawhi out of the lineup, PG13 has totaled 50.1, 53.7, 57.4, and 58.8 FanDuel points. In fact, with his co-star off the court, George sees his usage rate rise by 7.3 percentage points, while averaging an additional 0.14 FanDuel points per minute (1.36 in total).
George and the Los Angeles Clippers don't have much to worry about with their matchup, as the Memphis Grizzlies rank 20th versus two-guards this season. The Clippers also get a bump in pace, as the Grizzlies ranks eighth in that category (LA is 27th).
numberFire's algorithm projects George to be the top scorer at shooting guard tonight.
(Update: George has been ruled out due to rest.)
Rudy Gobert, C, Utah Jazz
FanDuel Salary: $8,000
Like point guard, center is overflowing with viable options tonight, but I like Rudy Gobert as the perfect blend of value and upside.
Once again, the Utah Jazz will be without Donovan Mitchell for their match with the Houston Rockets tonight. This season, with Mitchell off the floor, Gobert is averaging a salivating 1.41 FanDuel points per minute. At that rate, he would accrue five-times value (or 5.0 fantasy points for every $1,000 in salary) in 28.4 minutes. He's played more than 28.4 in 10 of his last 11 games.
Gobert's individual matchup is a dandy too. Over their last 30 games, Houston has given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers.
Utah's implied total of 118.75 is tied with the Pacers for third-highest on the slate, and that's certainly a boon to Gobert's outlook tonight.