NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 4/21/21: Where Do the Public and Model Agree Tonight?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors
The Brooklyn Nets are still without James Harden and Kevin Durant, but that hasn't been the death of their offensive success. In five games without those two but with Kyrie Irving, they are now 3-2 with an offensive rating of 121.5 (and a defensive rating of 111.5).
The Toronto Raptors are 11th in offensive rating over their past 15 games with a defensive rating of 109.0, but they no longer are listing Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam, and OG Anunoby on the injury report. With at least two of those playing, they have an offensive rating of 114.0 and a defensive rating of 112.8.
Using those relevant samples, my model the projected point total jumps to 234.5, and the over (228.5) is looking to be 65.9% likely.
That coincides with numberFire's model, which sees the over as 61.3% likely. oddsFire is showing heavy action on the over, as well, with 62% of the tickets and 68% of the money.
A lot is pointing to the over at 228.5.
Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks
Big surprise, but the algorithm likes the New York Knicks -- and so does the public!
oddsFire is indicating that 60% of the money is on the Knicks' moneyline (+100) and that 71% of the money is on the Knicks' spread (+1.5).
Our algorithm is rating both of those as three-star recommendations out of five and as at least 61.5% likely to occur. That ties both bets to an expected return of at least 21.8%.
Both the Knicks and Atlanta Hawks played yesterday -- both at home.
Despite identical 10-5 records over their past 15 games, the Knicks are third in the NBA in net rating in that sample, rating as a +6.5. The Hawks are 10th at a +3.8, so the edge should clearly belong to the Knicks.
Phoenix Suns at Philadelphia 76ers
There is massive smart money indications on the under (220.5) here in this game, some of the biggest we ever see, really.
The over is getting 81% of the bet slips but only 46% of the money. That means 54% of the money on over/under bets is coming on 19% of the tickets for the under, a 35-point differential. Again, you don't need to have me stress that it's a big gap, but it really is a big gap!
And not only that, but the model here at numberFire is liking the under, as well, so we once again have that agreement.
Our model rates the under as a two-star recommendation out of five and predicts a median point total of 216.6. Overall, the under is 60.1% likely to occur, leading to an expected return of 14.7%.
Both teams rank top-10 in defensive rating over the past 15 games and bottom-half in pace in that span, which are good signs for the under to come through.
