NBA

Daily Fantasy NBA Adjusted Matchups and Pace for Wednesday 4/21/21

Matchups matter in daily fantasy NBA, and it can be hard to keep everything -- pace, defensive rating, individual matchups -- tidy, so I wanted to fix that by dumping all the data into one place for ease of use.

So every day, I'll be posting some information on each game for the NBA main slate.

That'll include things like opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings for each team. I'll also look at opponent-adjusted paces based on the team-level as well.

And to go a step further, I'll provide defense-versus-position (DvP) values based on FanDuel points per minute allowed to each position. The way that'll work is to adjust on the individual level. This means looking at each player's total fantasy points per minute mark to figure out an expected output in a game and comparing it to what actually happened. Holding a superstar and a role player to the same FanDuel-point-per-minute mark isn't quite the same. These values will adjust for expectation.

These values initially included last season's data but now show only stats from the 2020-21 season.

Adjusted Offensive Rating and Opponent Defensive Rating

This table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Team Opp Over/
Under
Spread Implied
Total
Adj.
Offensive
Rating
Rank Opp Adj.
Defensive
Rating
Rank
SAC MIN 238.5 -4.5 121.50 113.7 12 118.0 27
GS WSH 239.0 -2.5 120.75 107.3 21 113.4 20
UTAH HOU 227.0 -11.0 119.0 121.9 3 115.8 26
IND OKC 226.5 -10.5 118.50 110.3 15 114.1 23
WSH GS 239.0 2.5 118.25 104.9 24 108.5 7
MIN SAC 238.5 4.5 117.0 102.4 26 124.1 30
TOR BKN 228.5 -3.5 116.0 111.3 14 115.7 25
DAL DET 220.0 -11.5 115.75 114.9 11 112.9 16
DEN POR 228.5 -2.0 115.25 122.4 2 121.1 29
LAC MEM 226.5 -2.0 114.25 123.5 1 109.2 8
POR DEN 228.5 2.0 113.25 119.3 6 112.9 15
BKN TOR 228.5 3.5 112.50 121.0 4 112.1 14
MEM LAC 226.5 2.0 112.25 112.0 13 110.4 11
PHX PHI 220.0 -1.0 110.50 118.4 7 102.0 2
PHI PHX 220.0 1.0 109.50 110.0 16 107.0 5
NY ATL 216.5 -1.0 108.75 106.9 22 113.1 18
SA MIA 215.5 -1.0 108.25 108.0 19 108.0 6
OKC IND 226.5 10.5 108.0 95.8 30 111.9 12
HOU UTAH 227.0 11.0 108.0 99.3 27 104.7 4
ATL NY 216.5 1.0 107.75 116.2 8 104.3 3
MIA SA 215.5 1.0 107.25 105.5 23 110.4 10
CHI CLE 210.0 -2.5 106.25 109.8 17 113.7 21
DET DAL 220.0 11.5 104.25 104.4 25 113.1 19
CLE CHI 210.0 2.5 103.75 98.1 28 113.8 22

Adjusted Pace and Expected Pace, Offensive Rating, and Points

This table shows each team's adjusted pace and adjusted opponent pace to find expected pace. Expected offensive rating combines each team's adjusted offensive rating and the opponent's adjusted defensive rating. Combining expected pace and expected offensive rating gives us expected points.

This table is sorted by matchup in terms of fastest average pace.

Team Opp Adj.
Pace
Rank Opp
Adj.
Pace
Rank Expected
Pace
Expected
Offensive
Rating
Expected
Points
GS WSH 102.4 3 104.3 1 103.3 110.3 114.0
WSH GS 104.3 1 102.4 3 103.3 106.7 110.3
SAC MIN 101.3 7 102.8 2 102.0 115.9 118.2
MIN SAC 102.8 2 101.3 7 102.0 113.2 115.5
IND OKC 100.6 10 101.8 6 101.2 112.2 113.5
OKC IND 101.8 6 100.6 10 101.2 103.9 105.1
TOR BKN 99.8 12 102.2 4 101.0 113.5 114.6
BKN TOR 102.2 4 99.8 12 101.0 116.6 117.8
UTAH HOU 99.2 15 101.3 8 100.2 118.8 119.1
HOU UTAH 101.3 8 99.2 15 100.2 102.0 102.2
PHX PHI 97.3 27 101.1 9 99.2 110.2 109.3
PHI PHX 101.1 9 97.3 27 99.2 108.5 107.6
LAC MEM 97.7 25 100.3 11 99.0 116.4 115.2
MEM LAC 100.3 11 97.7 25 99.0 111.2 110.1
CHI CLE 99.5 13 98.0 20 98.7 111.8 110.4
CLE CHI 98.0 20 99.5 13 98.7 105.9 104.6
SA MIA 99.3 14 96.5 28 97.9 108.0 105.7
MIA SA 96.5 28 99.3 14 97.9 108.0 105.7
DAL DET 98.0 21 97.8 24 97.9 113.9 111.5
DET DAL 97.8 24 98.0 21 97.9 108.8 106.4
DEN POR 96.3 29 97.6 26 96.9 121.8 118.1
POR DEN 97.6 26 96.3 29 96.9 116.1 112.5
NY ATL 95.2 30 98.2 19 96.7 110.0 106.3
ATL NY 98.2 19 95.2 30 96.7 110.2 106.6

Player-Level Adjusted FanDuel Points per Minute by Position

This table is presented to be viewed from an offensive perspective (i.e. the defensive marks reflect the offense's opponent).

The matchups shown are their opponent's defensive FanDuel-point-per-minute mark adjusted for individual opponents faced. League-wide ranks are in parenthesis. Because outliers are the primary matchups worth targeting and avoiding, green cells indicate top-five easiest matchups for the offense, and red indicate bottom-five.

Teams are sorted alphabetically for ease of use.

Offense Defense PG SG SF PF C
ATL NY 0.93 (5) 0.83 (3) 0.82 (7) 0.86 (2) 1.13 (19)
BKN TOR 0.95 (11) 0.89 (22) 0.86 (13) 1.00 (27) 1.11 (16)
CHI CLE 0.96 (13) 0.88 (17) 0.87 (17) 0.96 (20) 1.13 (20)
CLE CHI 0.97 (15) 0.86 (14) 0.83 (9) 0.94 (13) 1.22 (29)
DAL DET 0.97 (17) 0.88 (21) 0.79 (2) 1.05 (30) 1.11 (15)
DEN POR 1.01 (24) 0.94 (29) 0.81 (5) 0.96 (19) 1.05 (7)
DET DAL 0.94 (8) 0.83 (4) 0.83 (8) 0.93 (11) 1.10 (13)
GS WSH 1.04 (29) 0.90 (26) 0.89 (23) 0.95 (15) 1.20 (26)
HOU UTAH 0.94 (7) 0.79 (2) 0.84 (10) 0.89 (4) 1.11 (14)
IND OKC 0.99 (22) 0.90 (24) 0.95 (30) 1.01 (28) 1.16 (22)
LAC MEM 0.94 (9) 0.88 (20) 0.88 (21) 0.92 (9) 1.20 (25)
MEM LAC 0.97 (14) 0.88 (18) 0.78 (1) 0.85 (1) 1.03 (3)
MIA SA 1.02 (25) 0.85 (9) 0.86 (14) 0.92 (8) 1.13 (17)
MIN SAC 1.01 (23) 0.93 (27) 0.88 (22) 0.99 (24) 1.16 (21)
NY ATL 0.97 (20) 0.86 (11) 0.88 (20) 0.94 (12) 1.07 (8)
OKC IND 0.97 (18) 0.86 (13) 0.87 (16) 0.99 (25) 1.19 (24)
PHI PHX 0.89 (1) 0.77 (1) 0.80 (3) 0.90 (7) 1.08 (9)
PHX PHI 0.96 (12) 0.87 (15) 0.81 (4) 0.89 (5) 0.95 (2)
POR DEN 0.90 (2) 0.84 (6) 0.92 (29) 0.96 (18) 0.94 (1)
SA MIA 0.91 (3) 0.86 (12) 0.84 (12) 0.92 (10) 1.05 (6)
SAC MIN 1.05 (30) 0.90 (25) 0.92 (28) 0.98 (23) 1.21 (28)
TOR BKN 0.93 (4) 0.86 (10) 0.84 (11) 0.98 (21) 1.19 (23)
UTAH HOU 1.02 (26) 0.93 (28) 0.89 (24) 0.95 (17) 1.22 (30)
WSH GS 0.95 (10) 0.85 (8) 0.87 (18) 0.99 (26) 1.20 (27)