NBA

NBA Betting Guide for 4/16/21: Don't Worry Too Much About Toronto's Injuries

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors

The Toronto Raptors list a lot of players as out or doubtful for tonight, including Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam, but will again be trotting out Fred VanVleet in the starting lineup after his suspension and hip injury. The Orlando Magic are dealing with their own long injury list, though, too.

The Raptors with VanVleet and without players officially listed as out on the injury report are still a good team. Quite good, in fact. Their net rating is a +7.3 over a 127.0-minute sample (more than two and a half games' worth) by way of a 111.4 offensive rating and a 104.1 defensive rating.

Since the trade deadline, the Magic -- without their players listed as out on the injury report -- have a net rating -20.6 of by way of a 106.6 offensive rating and a 127.2 defensive rating over 291.0 minutes. Zoinks!

Our algorithm lists the Raptors -2.0 as a four-star recommendation out of five, and oddsFire indicates that 88% of the money is on the Raptors to cover, as well. Also, Toronto's moneyline (-132) is a full five-star recommendation, according to our algorithm.

The model also pits the over (215.0) as a three-star recommendation, and we're seeing smart money going there, as well. With 51% of the tickets yet 69% of the money on the over. That indicates heavy bets on the over.

Memphis Grizzlies at Chicago Bulls

The public is backing the Memphis Grizzlies in this game. There is more than 80% of the money on the Memphis moneyline (-166) and on the Memphis spread (-3.5). The algorithm is favoring the Bulls, though, so what is more intriguing here looks like the over/under (222.5).

The betting public is on the over (as usual, really) by way of 67% of of the betting tickets and 59% of the money. That does imply some heavier bets are on the under, but we're still seeing a majority here.

And our algorithm is rating the over as a four-star recommendation out of five. The median projected point total in this game comes out to 231.1, easily besting that over/under. In total, the algo views the over as 66.9% likely to occur, good for a 27.6% return on investment.

These two teams have not displayed heavy trends one way or the other on the over or under: a 49.1% over rate for the Grizzlies and a 48.1% over rate for the Chicago Bulls. However, the average over/under for the Grizzlies this season has been 224.5, and for the Bulls, it's 226.0. The current number is comfortably lower.

New York Knicks at Dallas Mavericks

The competitive New York Knicks (29-27 on the season and 13th in numberFire's team power rankings) generally get love from the algorithm, and that's the case (slightly) once more against the Dallas Mavericks, who rank 10th in our power rankings.

The Knicks are 5.5-point underdogs, and our algorithm anticipates a 4.6-point gap in favor of the Mavericks. That leaves some slight value on the Knicks to cover (a 53.6% probability). We are seeing 55% of the money on the Knicks to cover, as well.

But once more, the over/under might be the more appealing play. Bettors are hammering the over (210.5) by way of 85% of the betslips and 90% of the money taking that side. numberFire rates the over as 53.9% likely to occur.

This is despite the fact that these are two of the three teams in the NBA with the lowest over rates (40.7% for the Mavericks and 41.1% for the Knicks). Again, though, this total is not that typical for either side. The average Knicks total is 214.2, and for the Mavs, it's all the way up at 224.8.