3 NBA FanDuel Studs to Target on 4/15/21
Basketball is the most consistent sport for daily fantasy purposes.
A top slugger in baseball will have his fair share of 0-for-4 days, and an elite fantasy football player is at risk of having games where his team's offense as a whole is shut down. A high-salaried NBA stud is generally going to get his, though. With so many possessions in a game providing opportunities to produce, top fantasy basketball options will be posting high scores just about every night.
While this consistency puts us in a good position to identify top plays, it also means you can't afford to miss when you're paying a heavy salary to roster someone. Even with strong value plays in your lineup, getting a dud from a stud is likely going to leave your lineup lacking.
Let's get right into it and look at which top players should be the focal points of your lineups today.
Devin Booker, SG, Phoenix Suns
FanDuel Salary: $9,000
We'll have to get creative about how we approach the high-end plays tonight, and there are no obvious ones. In fact, of all the players with salaries above $6,800, numberFire's algorithm doesn't have anyone returning better than five-times value (or 5.0 fantasy points for every $1,000 in salary). You get the idea.
Now, we'll start this out with Devin Booker. The 24-year-old's salary is a bit tough to swallow, especially for someone who regularly produces fewer than 40 FanDuel points, but his matchup makes it a heck of a lot more palatable.
Tonight, Booker and the Phoenix Suns will be taking on the Sacramento Kings. You know, the team that ranks dead last in defensive efficiency. According to numberFire's DvP tool, Sacramento ranks 27th against shooting guards per 48 minutes. On the season, they've ceded the most real-life points, third-most assists, and eighth-most steals to the position, per FantasyPros.
That's all a boon for Booker, who's had a number of ceiling performances lately. In his last 12 outings, the All-Star has dropped 49.7-plus five times. Booker's also been excellent at bouncing back from poor outings this season, which is noteworthy since he managed just 20.1 FanDuel points against the Miami Heat on Tuesday. In his last eight efforts following a sub-35-point fantasy outing, Booker has averaged 47.8 FanDuel points, including 44.8, 49.7, 50.9, 51.2, and 56.8 in his last five such instances.
The fact that the Suns have the highest implied total on tonight's four-gamer is just the icing on the cake.
Bogdan Bogdanovic, SF, Atlanta Falcons
FanDuel Salary: $7,200
The Deer have also struggled to limit opposing small forwards this season, as they have surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points to the position in 2020-21 -- that includes the second-most real-life points, 10th-most rebounds, third-most made three-pointers, and fifth-most blocks.
Bogdanovic would need 36 fantasy points to achieve five-times value at his salary, and he has exceeded that number in six of his last nine contests, including performances of 46.1, 46.8, 48.9, and 50.5. Additionally, in three games without Young in the lineup, Bogdan has averaged 43.7 FanDuel points.
If you're into that thing, Bogdanovic also has the world's worst revenge game narrative, as he was (unofficially) a member of the Bucks for approximately four minutes.
Draymond Green, PF, Golden State Warriors
FanDuel Salary: $7,100
numberFire's models have Draymond Green amassing 35.5 FanDuel points tonight, which would result in a value figure of 5.0 on the dot. That is our algorithm's best point-per-dollar projection among all players with salaries above $6,800.
In his last seven games, Draymond has accumulated outputs of 43.9, 46.9, 48, and 59 FanDuel points -- that's a salivating ceiling for a player in his salary range.
What's even more enticing is Green's matchup. Tonight, the Golden State Warriors are squaring off against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to power forwards over their last 30 games.
In my book, Green is a core play tonight.