3 NBA FanDuel Studs to Target on 4/8/21
Basketball is the most consistent sport for daily fantasy purposes.
A top slugger in baseball will have his fair share of 0-for-4 days, and an elite fantasy football player is at risk of having games where his team's offense as a whole is shut down. A high-salaried NBA stud is generally going to get his, though. With so many possessions in a game providing opportunities to produce, top fantasy basketball options will be posting high scores just about every night.
While this consistency puts us in a good position to identify top plays, it also means you can't afford to miss when you're paying a heavy salary to roster someone. Even with strong value plays in your lineup, getting a dud from a stud is likely going to leave your lineup lacking.
Let's get right into it and look at which top players should be the focal points of your lineups today.
Luka Doncic, PG, Dallas Mavericks
FanDuel Salary: $10,300
Luka Doncic hasn't eclipsed 49.8 FanDuel points in any of his last eight games, so he is most certainly not without risk. That said, not many can match the upside he brings to the table.
Tonight, Luka and the Dallas Mavericks will take on the Giannis Antetokounmpo-less Milwaukee Bucks. The Deer play at a faster pace than any team on this slate, and they've struggled considerably against floor generals as of late. Over their last 15 games, Milwaukee has ceded the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards, per FantasyPros.
In a matchup against the Bucks in January, Doncic rode a triple-double to 56.5 FanDuel points. At 51.1, Luka is averaging 4.7 more FanDuel points per game than any other player on tonight's slate, and he's essentially the only one who brings legitimate 70-point upside.
numberFire's algorithm projects the 22-year-old to total 53.5 fantasy points tonight, which is a good 8.8 more than any other player on the slate.
Donovan Mitchell, SG, Utah Jazz
FanDuel Salary: $7,800
While Donovan Mitchell might be a very chalky play on this slate, I suggest swallowing that chalk and differentiating your lineups elsewhere.
In his last 11 outings, Mitchell has dropped 46.2 or more FanDuel points seven times. In total, he's surpassed 40 in 18 of his last 28 contests. At tonight's salary, he would only need 39 to achieve five-times value (or 5.0 fantasy points for every $1,000 in salary).
The possibility that Mike Conley sits tonight further increases Mitchell's appeal -- Conley hasn't played on both ends of a back-to-back since he returned from a six-game absence in February. In 10 games without the veteran point guard in the lineup this season, Mitchell has averaged 46.2 FanDuel points, including five outputs of 47.9-plus.
Oh, and then there's the matchup. To date, the Portland Trail Blazers have allowed the second-most fantasy points per 48 minutes to two-guards, according to numberFire's DvP tool. And, of the 14 suiting up tonight, only the Sacramento Kings rank worse in defense efficiency than the Blazers. That all helps explain why the Utah Jazz have a slate-high implied total of 119.5 tonight.
Pascal Siakam, PF, Toronto Raptors
FanDuel Salary: $8,700
Though the sample size is tiny (just 56.9 minutes), Siakam is averaging a whopping 1.61 FanDuel points per minute with those three and Norman Powell off the court this season, according to RotoGrinders.
The 27-year-old has a reasonable salary for a player who can easily score in the upper 40s to mid-50s. In his last eight games, he's had performances of 46.4, 50.6, 52.2, and 57.9 FanDuel points, among others.
The Chicago Bulls do present a rather tough challenge -- no team has been stingier against the position over their last 15 games. That said, Siakam is no stranger to feasting on elite defenses. Over his last 11 games alone, Siakam has dropped 46.4 on the Los Angeles Lakers (eighth-best against power forwards), 48.5 on the Jazz (sixth-best), and 52.2 on the Phoenix Suns (fifth-best).
Our algorithm projects Siakam to outproduce the PF3 tonight by 10.7 fantasy points.