3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 4/5/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Saddiq Bey Over 12.5 Points (-110)
I think Saddiq Bey could be in play for two props: his points (over 12.5 at -110 odds) and three-point makes (over 2.5 at +118 odds).
The Detroit Pistons face the Oklahoma City Thunder, who rank 24th in defensive rating over the past 15 games at 114.5. That is around three points worse than the NBA average in that span. That bodes well for Bey's points projection, which numberFire's algorithm pits at 14.4 for tonight.
The Thunder are also a little worse than the NBA average at allowing three-point attempts with a three-point field goal attempt rate of 40.9% since the start of February. He averages 0.24 three-point attempts per minute, which we can boost a smidge for the matchup, and that should net him around 7.8 three-point attempts.
At his season-long average of 37.8%, he should be projecting toward 3.0 makes from deep and is listed at plus money to get there.
De'Aaron Fox Over 7.5 Assists (+112)
De'Aaron Fox's projected assist number, per our algorithm, is 7.6, which is tight here. The prop was initially 6.5 assists, but we're still getting plus money for Fox to net eight-plus assists in a game with a 234.0-point over/under and a tight-ish 4.5-point spread.
Fox averages 0.20 assists per minute this season and is projected for 36.6. minutes (which would get him to only 7.3 assists at his current season-long rate).
But wait. There's more. The Minnesota Timberwolves allow 25.7 assists per 100 possessions overall and 9.4 assists per game to opposing point guards, both worse than the NBA average. For that reason, Fox should have better than 0.20 assists per minute in such a plush matchup.
He's up to 0.23 assists per minute in games against the 10 teams that allow the most assists per possession, which seems like a small bump from his season-long rate, but it's the difference between 7.3 assists and 8.4 at his projected minutes load.
RJ Barrett Over 17.5 Points (-110)
I don't usually go so hard at overs, but they're more fun, and there's some clear value on some of them tonight, so let's ride.
RJ Barrett and the New York Knicks face the Brooklyn Nets in a game with an over/under of just 216.5. However, the spread is pretty close (Nets by 5.0), and Barrett has recently been scoring in bunches before cooling off in three of his past four games.
Overall, Barrett is projected for 18.7 points over 37.2 minutes, per our algorithm.
On the season, he averages 0.51 points per minute and is getting a matchup with a Nets team that is 18th in defensive rating over the past 15 games. They're not quite as generous as they have been at points (they're 25th on the full season in defensive rating), but they're also not a tough defense by any means.
His overall per-minute scoring rate at his projected minutes workload would get him to 19.0 points. Against teams outside the top 10 in defensive rating this season, Barrett's per-minute scoring rate is up to 0.53. Again, that's slight, but it would get him to 19.7 points at his projected workload.