NBA Betting Guide for 4/2/21: 3 Games Our Algorithm and the Public Agree On
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Charlotte Hornets at Indiana Pacers
Although the Indiana Pacers could be without Domantas Sabonis, who is listed as questionable due to a quad injury, his possible absence is not enough to deter the betting public and our algorithm on the Pacers' spread (-4.0) and moneyline (-172).
Our algorithm gives Indiana a 75.6% chance to win this game, which equates to an expected return of 17.6% on a moneyline wager. The algorithm rates it as a four-star recommendation out of five. The spread is less likely (57.9%), of course, but remains a two-star recommendation.
The betting public has placed 71% of the money on the Pacers' moneyline and 66% of the money on the Pacers to cover the spread, according to oddsFire.
The Pacers have some wild splits without Sabonis but with Myles Turner and Malcolm Brogdon sharing the court: their net rating is +27.9 over a 158-minute sample (equivalent to around 3.3 full games). They should keep the upper-hand even without the All-Star forward.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies
There is more agreement in this game, too, between the public and the algorithm, which always makes me feel cozy.
Our projections for this one include a full, five-star recommendation for the Memphis Grizzlies' moneyline (-270) and a three-star recommendation for Memphis to cover (-6.5). Our median projected score in this game is 121.2 to 109.8, an 11.4-point gap between the 22-23 Grizzlies and the 12-36 Minnesota Timberwolves.
The betting public is super heavy on the Grizzlies' moneyline, by way of 86% of the money. It's a little tighter with the spread (59% of the money) but still a majority nonetheless.
Over each team's past 15 games, the Grizzlies rank 15th in the NBA with a net rating of +0.4 (despite a 7-8 record), and the Timberwolves are 28th at -7.4 (leading to a 5-10 record).
Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans
The over/under in this game opened at 223.5 but is up half a point to 224.0 on FanDuel Sportsbook. There has been a majority of action on the over: 67% of bets and 64% of money, so that tracks.
Our algorithm is lightly on this over, rating it a one-star recommendation out of five and projecting a median score of 114.5 to 112.5 for the New Orleans Pelicans, a total of 227.0 points.
The Atlanta Hawks just beat the San Antonio Spurs 134-129 in double overtime last night, which could lead to some heavy legs for this game, but they do boast a top-eight offense over their past 15 games by offensive rating.
For the Pelicans, it does seem like Lonzo Ball will miss another game, though Zion Williamson could return after missing last night's game with a thumb injury. With Zion and without Ball, the Pelicans' offensive rating still sits at 113.5.
Even injecting their poor data without both of them (a 104.2 offensive rating and a 106.7 defensive rating), this game should have the leverage to go over based on how the Hawks play.
