NBA

NBA Betting Guide for 4/1/21: The Betting Public Likes the Nuggets Tonight

Denver is getting a lot of love against the Clippers. Which other bets deserve our attention?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets

The Brooklyn Nets haven't been at full health for what feels like forever, and again tonight, they will still be without Kevin Durant. In addition, they will be without James Harden, after he left last night's game with hamstring tightness.

But even without both of them, it seems like there's a lot to like about the Nets' moneyline (-156). They are receiving more than 80% of the tickets (81%) and money (88%) on all moneyline bets in this game, according to oddsFire. numberFire's algorithm rates the Nets as 64.0% likely to beat a Charlotte Hornets team without LaMelo Ball. That implies a slight 5.1% return.

Unlike the betting public, which is backing Brooklyn's spread and moneyline primarily, our algorithm actually prefers the over among bets in this game.

The public has put an even 50% of money on the over and the under (223.5). Our algo is leaning pretty heavily on the over, viewing it as 68.0% likely to hit. That's tied to an expected return of 29.9%.

The Hornets -- in five games with out Ball -- have an offensive rating of 114.3, via PBPstats. The Nets -- in just one game with Kyrie Irving but without Harden and Durant -- put up an offensive rating of 128.7. Brooklyn and the over are both in play.

Orlando Magic at New Orleans Pelicans

The over (218.0) is also getting some algorithm love in this game between the Orlando Magic and New Orleans Pelicans despite the current status of each squad. The Magic, of course, traded away everyone, and the Pelicans are listing both Lonzo Ball and Zion Williamson as questionable.

But for what it's worth, there's roughly even money on either side of this over/under despite it all.

The Pelicans maintained a 116.5 offensive rating over their lone game without both Williamson and Ball, and their offensive rating is a viable 108.5 without them on the floor on the full season. The Magic have an offensive rating of just 104.9 in three games without Nikola Vucevic, Evan Fournier, and Aaron Gordon, but overall, this game still rates out with slightly positive value on the over if you combine these small-but-relevant samples.

What might be the better play is actually Orlando +9.0 points. Along with their low offensive rating in games without that former core trio, Orlando has a defensive rating of 105.6, for a net of just -0.7, way closer to zero than we'd probably expect.

The Orlando spread is getting 50% of the money, and our algorithm views them as 55.5% likely to cover.

Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Clippers

This is looking like the smart-money special opportunity of the night. There aren't a lot of outliers in terms of percentage of tickets and money on any bets on tonight's board, but we have it here.

Denver vs. LA Clippers Spread Moneyline
Percent of Bets on Denver 68% 59%
Percent of Money on Denver 83% 73%
Differential 15% 14%


So, we're seeing a 15-point gap (money versus bets) for the Denver Nuggets to cover their spread (-2.0) and a 14-point gap in their moneyline (-130).

It's worth noting that the total is up from 227.5 to 219.0 but that our algorithm still likes the over yet again, viewing it as 55.5% likely to hit.

The Los Angeles Clippers are listing Paul George as out for the third straight game (and they're still without Patrick Beverley). So, yes, the Clippers are shorthanded, but with Kawhi Leonard on the floor and without George and Beverley, the Clippers still maintain an elite offensive rating of 116.6.