NBA Betting Guide for 3/31/21: 3 Over/Unders That Look Like Winners
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Houston Rockets at Brooklyn Nets
These two teams met on March 3rd, a game in which the Brooklyn Nets won 132-114 (for a total of 246 points) over the Houston Rockets. The Nets maintained an offensive rating of 134.4, and the Rockets were at 116.1.
Kevin Durant did not play in that game and remains out for the Nets, for what it's worth.
In games without Durant but with Kyrie Irving and James Harden, the Nets have an offensive rating of 120.9, so they won't have much issue putting up points (or allowing points).
In total, the Nets have outperformed their opponent's defensive rating in 74.5% of games this season, the second-highest rate in the NBA.
The Rockets, of course, are a struggling offense and have an offensive rating of 103.8 over the past 15 games to rank 29th in the NBA but will get a boost against a very subpar defense.
Our algorithm is looking for this matchup to hit the over (230.5 points) again tonight, rating it as a two-star recommendation out of five. Our algo is viewing the over as 60.9% likely to occur.
Chicago Bulls at Phoenix Suns
Another over that looks promising is this one in the Chicago Bulls at Phoenix Suns game at 217.5 points. Our algorithm also rates this as a two-star recommendation out of five and sees the over as 60.2% likely to occur.
The median projected score in this one is 114.93 to 107.53 for the Suns, a total of 222.5, a full 5.0 points above the posted total.
The Bulls might be without Zach LaVine, who is questionable, but their full-season splits without him aren't super applicable due to the recent addition of Nikola Vucevic.
The betting trends are in full support of the over in this game, as we are seeing 73% of the tickets placed on the over -- and 76% of the money, as well, according to oddsFire.
Of note, the total is down five points (from 222.5, the exact median outcome in our game projections). That suggests that LaVine isn't going to play, but over a tiny 15-minute sample, the Bulls have notched a stellar 118.8 offensive rating with Vucevic and without LaVine.
Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Lakers
We did two overs; now it's time for an under in this game that should be a marquee matchup but ultimately has an 8.5-point spread in favor of the visiting Milwaukee Bucks.
The reason for that heavy spread is that the Los Angeles Lakers are without LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Without those two on the floor, the Lakers have an offensive rating of just 100.0 over 655 minutes. For perspective, the worst offense on the full season has an offensive rating of 103.8. Their defensive rating is also a stout 103.5 in that sample. They can really keep points off the board on both sides.
The Bucks rank fifth in offensive rating on the year at 116.4 and are at 114.5 over their past 15 games, which is a strong mark that ranks 12th but is by no means an outlier on the positive end. They have outscored their opponent's defensive rating in 60.9% of their games. That's a top-seven rate but -- again -- not really an outlier.
We're also seeing smart money on this under: although only 46% of the bets on the total are on the under, there has been 60% of money wagered on this game to stay shy of 222.0.
