NBA

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Tuesday 3/30/21

The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.

Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's four-game slate, which locks at 7:00 PM Eastern.

All injury updates are via the NBA's official injury report or numberFire's player news.

Slate Overview

This table is via Brandon Gdula's matchup sheet -- it shows the over/under for each game, as well as each team's spread and implied total. The table also includes each squad's offensive rating, adjusted for opponent, as well as opponent-adjusted defensive rating for the opposing team, including the respective league-wide ranks for each of those ratings.

Teams are sorted by their implied total.

Team Opp Over/
Under
Spread Implied
Total
Adj.
Offensive
Rating
Rank Opp Adj.
Defensive
Rating
Rank
CHA WSH 232.5 -3.5 118.0 110.6 16 115.1 25
WSH CHA 232.5 3.5 114.50 106.0 22 113.2 19
PHX ATL 221.0 -6.5 113.75 116.6 8 113.8 23
LAC ORL 215.0 -11.5 113.25 123.7 1 113.1 17
DEN PHI 220.0 -4.5 112.25 122.6 3 102.8 2
PHI DEN 220.0 4.5 107.75 111.5 14 113.3 21
ATL PHX 221.0 6.5 107.25 114.9 11 105.7 5
ORL LAC 215.0 11.5 101.75 98.9 27 110.5 12


Point Guard

Stud

Russell Westbrook ($11,000) - Despite having the second-highest salary on tonight's slate, Westbrook is a player I highlighted in today's studs column. Excluding a blowout against the New York Knicks a week ago, Russ has surpassed 50 FanDuel points in eight straight games, including at least 54.8 in seven of those outings. During that stretch, he's had outputs of 58.1, 62.1, 72.0, 76.5, and 88.3 fantasy points -- that's all you need to know about the season. As an added bonus, the Charlotte Hornets have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to point guards this season, per numberFire's DvP tool. This matchup between the Washington Wizards and Hornets currently has an over/under of 229.5, which is 8.5 points more than any other game's, according to numberFire's Matchup Heatmap. In the last two games Bradley Beal has missed, Westbrook has dropped 72.0 and 88.3 FanDuel points. Beal is questionable tonight after missing last night's contest.

Other Stud to Consider:
Chris Paul ($7,600) - Had surpassed 40 FanDuel points in five of his seven games prior to Sunday's dud. Atlanta ranks 20th against point guards this campaign.

Value Play

Terry Rozier ($7,500) - The point guard position isn't overflowing with value options tonight, so we'll turn to a player in the mid-range. Rozier is averaging 41.1 fantasy points in the four games since LaMelo Ball went down with an injury, and his production has been fairly steady. Tonight, he'll go up against a Wizards team that's ceded the third-most fantasy points to point guards this season.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Raul Neto ($3,600) - Has topped 19 FanDuel points in 5 of his last 10. numberFire's top-projected value at the position if he plays through his questionable tag.
Reggie Jackson ($5,000) - Has averaged 29.9 minutes over his last three and should maintain a larger role with Lou Williams having been traded. Orlando ranks 29th against the position this campaign.

Shooting Guards

Stud

Devin Booker ($8,200) - Booker has recorded fewer than 32 FanDuel points just twice in his last 24 games, which gives him a rock-solid floor. The 24-year-old has also showcased an intriguing ceiling lately, as he has amassed 44.8 or more fantasy points in 5 of his last 10 efforts. Tonight, he'll be matched up with an Atlanta defense that ranks 22nd in efficiency this season, according to NBA.com.

Other Stud to Consider:
Paul George ($8,700) - PG13 didn't play yesterday and is questionable tonight. If he plays, he is worth considering in this matchup. Orlando ranks 29th versus two-guards.

Value Play

Devonte' Graham ($5,300) - Considering the manner in which his usage and production have trended up with LaMelo out of the lineup, it's damn near impossible to pass on Graham tonight. After managing just 19.6 fantasy points in his first game with Ball inactive, Graham has eclipsed 26 in each of his last three, including 31.7 on Sunday. His usage rate, which was at 13% in that first game, has topped out at 29% and 28.7% in his last two. A matchup with Washington certainly doesn't hurt his outlook -- the Wizards rank 20th against the position this season. Graham is our model's top-projected value at shooting guard.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Seth Curry ($4,400) - Prior to his recent three-game absence, Curry had trumped 22 FanDuel points in six straight. Denver is ninth-worst against the position over their last 15 games.
Will Barton ($5,600) - A recent cold streak has dampened Barton's outlook, but this is a guy who averaged 32.1 FanDuel points during an 11-game stretch prior to that. Over their last 15 contests, the Sixers have surrendered the third-most fantasy points to shooting guards.

Small Forward

Stud

Gordon Hayward ($7,000) - Hayward hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire lately, but this is the game we want to target on tonight's slate. The total for this contest is 8.5 points higher than any other tonight, and the 3.5-point spread is the tightest on the slate. Hayward did manage 44.4 fantasy points in the first game Ball missed, but he's averaged just 24.6 in the three outings since. That said, nothing screams "get right" more than a matchup with the Wizards. On the season, Washington ranks 21st against opposing small forwards. numberFire's algorithm projects Hayward for 36.2 fantasy points tonight, making him the second-best point-per-dollar play at the position.

Other Stud to Consider:
Kawhi Leonard ($9,600) - Leonard has at least 46.8 fantasy points in six of his last nine games. However, an 11.0-point spread coupled with the fact that he hasn't eclipsed 53.1 in any of his last 17 games has me fading the Klaw tonight.

Value Play

Deni Avdija ($3,600) - In his last two games, Avdija has seen 26.9 and 31.5 minutes of action, and he's turned that into 20 and 23.1 FanDuel points. Given that he's just $100 more than the minimum, either of those outputs would return great value. Luckily for the rookie, the matchup could not be better. So far this season, Charlotte ranks 29th versus opposing small forwards, and they're dead last against the position over their last 15 games, according to FantasyPros.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Rui Hachimura ($5,700) - Given the Hornets' struggles versus the position, a Wizards-small forward stack is not out of the question. Hachimura has racked up at least 31 FanDuel points in six of his last nine games, including 37.1-plus in four of them.
Danny Green ($5,400) - Has 27 or more fantasy points in six of his last nine outings, including at least 31.2 in five of them. Denver ranks 28th against the position this season.

Power Forward

Stud

Tobias Harris ($8,600) - With Embiid off the court this season, Harris has seen his usage rate rise by 3.7 percentage points while averaging an additional 0.11 FanDuel points per minute. That certainly doesn't hurt his outlook against a Nuggets team that has been the second-most generous squad to power forwards over their last 15 games. It's worth noting that the addition of Aaron Gordon should aid Denver in that department.

Other Stud to Consider:
John Collins ($8,200) - Has topped 40 fantasy points in four of his last eight but faces a Phoenix interior that is fifth-stingiest to power forwards this season.

Value Play

PJ Washington ($5,600) - Sometimes, it is as simple as playing the matchups, and that's the case here. Washington has been a productive player this season, but his ceiling should get a boost versus a Washington team that ranks 28th against power forwards this campaign. The 22-year-old has posted at least 27 fantasy points in 9 of his last 14 games, including 7 outputs of 33.4-plus. numberFire's algo projects Washington to be the third-best value on the entire slate.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Marcus Morris ($4,500) - Has produced at least 24.8 fantasy points in five of his last seven and should remain productive as long as Serge Ibaka doesn't return.
Miles Bridges ($5,100) - Has put up 25.6, 29.9, and 32.6 FanDuel points in three of his last five. Gets the same tasty matchup as all the other Charlotte players do.

Center

Stud

Nikola Jokic ($11,300) - Jokic is worthy of consideration despite being the most expensive player on tonight's slate. The Serbian enters tonight's contest as fantasy's leading scorer. He totaled "only" 49 FanDuel points on Sunday, which was just the 15th time in 46 games that he's garnered fewer than 52. In the last eight games following a sub-50-point performance, Jokic has rebounded with an average of 66.1 FanDuel points -- and that includes at least 55.1 in every contest. numberFire's model projects the current MVP frontrunner for 52.1 fantasy points, which tops all players on this four-game slate.

Other Stud to Consider:
Clint Capela ($8,500) - Very hit-or-miss. Has at least 47.3 FanDuel points in 6 of his last 11, as well as 31.8 or fewer in 4 of the other 5. Center is one position you can attack against Phoenix, as they've allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to fives over their last 15 games.

Value Play

Ivica Zubac ($6,200) - Zubac might not be the chalkiest play at the position, but there are plenty of reasons to like him tonight. First off, he has topped 30 FanDuel points in five of his last eight games. Second, he'll be going up against an Orlando team that could very well feature one of the worst interior fronts the rest of the way now that they've parted with Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon. In fact, in their last two games, the Magic have surrendered 43.0 FanDuel points to Enes Kanter and 43.2 to Montrezl Harrell.

Other Value Option:
Dwight Howard ($5,100) - Our model's second-best projected value across all positions. Brutal matchup but doesn't have much competition with Embiid out and Tony Bradley having been traded.