FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Thursday 3/25/21
The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.
Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's five-game slate, which locks at 7:30 PM Eastern.
All injury updates are via the NBA's official injury report or numberFire's player news.
Slate Overview
This table is via Brandon Gdula's matchup sheet -- it shows the over/under for each game, as well as each team's spread and implied total. The table also includes each squad's offensive rating, adjusted for opponent, as well as opponent-adjusted defensive rating for the opposing team, including the respective league-wide ranks for each of those ratings.
Teams are sorted by their implied total.
| Team | Opp | Over/ Under |
Spread | Implied Total |
Adj. Offensive Rating |
Rank | Opp Adj. Defensive Rating |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | SA | 223.5 | -6.5 | 115.0 | 123.1 | 2 | 110.1 | 10 |
| SAC | GS | 226.0 | -3.0 | 114.50 | 113.6 | 12 | 105.9 | 4 |
| NY | WSH | 224.5 | -3.0 | 113.75 | 105.9 | 22 | 116.9 | 27 |
| GS | SAC | 226.0 | 3.0 | 111.50 | 105.2 | 23 | 124.1 | 30 |
| WSH | NY | 224.5 | 3.0 | 110.75 | 106.3 | 21 | 106.3 | 5 |
| MIA | POR | 218.0 | -3.0 | 110.50 | 103.2 | 25 | 122.7 | 29 |
| PHI | LAL | 215.5 | -5.5 | 110.50 | 111.6 | 14 | 102.0 | 1 |
| SA | LAC | 223.5 | 6.5 | 108.50 | 107.4 | 19 | 111.3 | 13 |
| POR | MIA | 218.0 | 3.0 | 107.50 | 119.5 | 7 | 106.8 | 7 |
| LAL | PHI | 215.5 | 5.5 | 105.0 | 110.5 | 17 | 102.5 | 2 |
Point Guard
Stud
De'Aaron Fox ($8,900) - In his last 13 games, Fox has recorded fewer than 42.9 FanDuel points twice, and he's topped 47 eight times during that stretch. That's rock-solid consistency. Tonight, he'll take on a Golden State Warriors team that will be without Stephen Curry to man the point guard position. The Sacramento Kings are tied for the second-highest implied total on this slate, so there's little reason to fade Fox in this one.
Other Stud to Consider:
Ben Simmons ($8,200) - Hasn't been on fire of late but does face a Lakers team that's allowed the most fantasy points to point guards over their last 15 games.
Value Play
Jordan Poole ($6,200) - Facing the Kings is a treat for anyone, especially point guards. Over their last 15 contests, Sac-Town has surrendered the third-most FanDuel points to the position, according to FantasyPros. Poole wasn't fantastic in a tougher matchup on Tuesday, though he had dropped 33.2, 33.4, and 41.3 fantasy points in the three games prior. He's numberFire's third-best projected value at the position.
Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Raul Neto ($3,500) - Our model's top-projected value at point. Has topped 20 FanDuel points in three of his last seven games.
Derrick White ($5,800) - Only managed 23.1 FanDuel points against the Clippers last night, but they do struggle to defend the position. numberFire projects him to bounce back with 29.0 in this one.
Shooting Guard
Studs to Consider:
Paul George ($8,200) - Has failed to top 32.2 fantasy points in five of his last eight -- did total 40.9, 42.0, and 45.9 in the other three.
Bradley Beal ($9,200) - Has only eked out 20.9 and 30.8 FanDuel points in his last two but had eclipsed 49 in two of the three games before that. New York is fourth-toughest on the position this season.
C.J. McCollum ($7,500) - Has put up fewer than 20 fantasy points in three of his last five. Could see a bump in volume with Gary Trent Jr. out of the picture.
Value Play
Tyrese Haliburton ($5,700) - Haliburton has entered the starting lineup with Marvin Bagley III out, and in his last two games, he's responded by dropping 35.5 and 37.2 fantasy points. numberFire's algorithm projects the rookie for 32.7 tonight, making him the third-best point-per-dollar play on the entire slate.
Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Tyler Herro ($5,200) - Our algorithm's second-best projected value at the two-guard position. Portland is second-worst against shooting guards over their last 15 games.
Andrew Wiggins ($6,800) - Only managed 14.9 FanDuel points on Tuesday but had racked up 36.8 and 65.6 in the two games prior. Sacramento is 28th against the position in 2020-21.
Alec Burks ($6,000) - Has garnered 30.1, 38.0, and 44.2 fantasy points in his last three, and New York will likely be without Derrick Rose once again. Wiz are 21st against shooting guards this campaign.
Small Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard ($9,700) - As I outline in today's studs column, Kawhi is a solid target tonight. After last night's 51.9-FanDuel-point performance, Leonard is now averaging 53.2 fantasy points against the Spurs over the last two seasons. The implied total of 114.25 is tops on the slate, according to numberFire's Matchup Heat Map -- we'll want some exposure to that. Leonard has had at least 47.9 fantasy points in four of his seven games since the All-Star break.
Other Stud to Consider:
Jimmy Butler ($9,500) - Production has dropped since Bam Adebayo returned from injury but is still worthy of consideration. Has surpassed 47 fantasy points in 8 of his last 11.
Value Play
RJ Barrett ($6,500) - It's impossible to overlook just how consistent a fantasy option Barrett has been over his last 11 games. During that stretch, he's accumulated 27.3 fantasy points just once, and he's contributed at least 33.4 seven times. Barrett pegged Washington for 38.5 FanDuel points on Tuesday, and the Wizards have now ceded the sixth-most fantasy points to small forwards over their last 15 games.
Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Kelly Oubre ($7,200) - Erupted for 43.5 fantasy points two days ago, and the Kings are 24th against the position this year.
Harrison Barnes ($6,000) - Steady production. Has at least 29.9 FanDuel points in 9 of his last 11 contests, including six outputs of more than 33. Warriors are a mid-range matchup for small forwards.
Nicolas Batum ($3,800) - Has 21.9, 25.0, and 28.8 fantasy points in three of his last five and could see increased usage with Lou Williams on the move.
Rui Hachimura ($5,200) - Only 19.9 FanDuel points against New York on Tuesday, but had topped 30 four of five games prior.
Power Forward
Studs
Bam Adebayo ($8,000) - Adebayo has failed to accrue at least 36.6 FanDuel points just twice in his last 23 games -- which is remarkable consistency. He has also eclipsed 40 fantasy points 16 times during that stretch. At tonight's salary, Bam would need only 40 to accrue five-times value (or 5.0 fantasy points for every $1,000 in salary). numberFire's algorithm projects Bam to be the best point-per-dollar play at power forward.
Julius Randle ($10,200) - Given that the Wizards play faster than any team on tonight's slate, it shouldn't come as a surprise that the Knicks have the slate's second-highest implied total. On the season, Washington ranks 27th against power forwards, according to numberFire's DvP tool. Randle, who has produced fewer than 44.2 FanDuel points just twice in his last 11 outings, should be able to take advantage of this matchup.
Value Play
Marcus Morris ($5,000) - Morris has stockpiled at least 24.8 fantasy points in four of his last five games, and given that the Clippers will be without Serge Ibaka, Patrick Beverley, and Lou Williams tonight, he should be able to keep that form going.
Other Mid-Range Option:
Draymond Green ($7,000) - Has racked up 34.8 or more FanDuel points in 8 of his last 12 efforts. Kings are surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points to power forwards this season.
Center
Stud
Richaun Holmes ($8,000) - Holmes is a stereotypical tournament piece -- his low floor comes with an extremely high ceiling. Over his last six games, the big man has had performances of 48.7, 56.2, and 61.0 FanDuel points. Tonight, he'll be taking on a Warriors team that's given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers throughout their last 15 games.
Value Play
Dwight Howard ($5,400) - Now that Tony Bradley has been traded, Howard doesn't have much competition as far as center depth is concerned. Howard only posted 17.6 fantasy points in 14.4 minutes on Tuesday, but prior to that, he had averaged 30.9 FanDuel points in his last eight games without Joel Embiid in the lineup. Howard is our model's second-best projected point-per-dollar play on the entire slate.
Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
James Wiseman ($4,200) - Our model's top-projected value tonight. Has topped 20 FanDuel points in four of his last five games.
Alex Len ($4,600) - Has posted 29.9 and 37.3 FanDuel points in two of his last four games, and now won't have to contend with Moe Wagner in the rotation.
