3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 3/24/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jamal Murray Over 3.5 Rebounds (-108)
The Raptors allow 7.4 rebounds per game to opposing point guards, which is the fourth-most in the NBA. That makes sense because they are just 27th in rebounding rate (47.7%) overall, around 95% of the NBA average.
Murray is projected for 4.2 rebounds tonight over 35.5 minutes, per numberFire's algorithm.
His full-season, per-minute rebounding rate is 0.11, which would total 3.9 rebounds at his projected minutes workload. He gathers 0.13 rebounds per minute against teams that are bottom-10 in rebounding rate (4.6 rebounds at his projected minutes).
Tomas Satoransky Over 5.5 Assists (-110)
That 4.8-assist-per-game rate comes over just an average of 22.4 minutes, and he has been dishing out 6.5 assists per game over his past six over 29.8 minutes.
We project Satoransky for 6.8 assists, which is pretty hefty compared to his assist prop. He's averaging 0.21 assists per minute, and we're slotting him in for 31.7 minutes (which would total 6.7 assists at his full-season rate). The per-minute numbers are way more promising than the full-season per-game averages.
The Cavs let up 24.2 assists per game, which is around the NBA average, and are just 24th in defensive rating. We probably don't need to ding Satoransky too much for the matchup, either.
Evan Fournier Under 19.5 Points (-110)
Evan Fournier is projected for just 18.0 points over 29.2 minutes tonight against a top-three defense by defensive rating, so naturally, I like the under.
Fournier likes to launch it from beyond the arc, as evidenced by a 50.7% three-point attempt rate (the percentage of his field goals that were three-point attempts).
He could have trouble getting his shot off against the Phoenix Suns, who allow the 8th-lowest three-point attempt rate in the NBA (37.4%), and that's a significant issue for Fournier, who gets 42.2% of his points from threes.
Fournier averages 0.64 points per minute on the full season, but that drops to 0.57 against top-five defenses (which would total only 16.6 points over his projected minutes workload).
A lot stands in the way for Fournier to get to 20.