3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 3/23/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at Online Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Kyle Kuzma Under 18.5 Points (-116)
Without LeBron James and Anthony Davis last time out, Kyle Kuzma mustered just 13 points on 5-of-16 shooting. He played 36.2 minutes, which was actually a touch under what he played in the game prior (36.5 minutes) when LeBron got injured mid-game, although the 17-point final margin Sunday may have had something to do with that.
In a 318-minute sample this season, Kuzma's usage rate rises just 1.2 percentage points -- up to 21.3% -- with AD and LeBron off the floor, according to NBAWowy.
Tonight, Kuzma faces a New Orleans Pelicans team that has been pretty good against power forwards, limiting the position to just 19.5 points per game, the ninth-fewest. The Los Angeles Lakers and Pels sit 18th and 17th, respectively, in pace, and the total for this game is 222.0 points.
Our model sees good value on the under on Kuzma's points prop as we project him for only 16.0 points.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+104)
Sticking with the Lakers, the matchup with New Orleans bodes well for LA's three-point shooters, and we can take advantage of that with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's made threes prop.
The Pelicans are allowing a 44.9% three-point attempt rate, the third-highest clip in the league. New Orleans permits an average of 10.2 three-point tries per game to shooting guards, the seventh-most.
KCP is having an excellent season from deep, making 1.5 triples per night at a career-best 40.3% clip. He hit 4 of 6 from downtown in his lone meeting with the Pelicans this season.
We project Caldwell-Pope to make 1.7 threes tonight, and we can get this over at +104.
Alex Len Under 6.5 Rebounds (-132)
The Washington Wizards can't be in a bigger pace-down spot than they are tonight. The Wiz, who rank first in pace, take on the New York Knicks, the team that plays at the slowest pace. It's also just a rough matchup for most of Washington's players as New York sits fourth in defensive efficiency.
In terms of boards allowed to opposing frontcourts, the Knicks surrender the 10th-fewest per game (31.0). Alex Len, meanwhile, has snagged at least seven rebounds only twice in his last seven games. He's logged 18 or fewer minutes in half of his past four outings.
Our algorithm projects Len for 5.0 rebounds tonight, so there is some breathing room on this line.
