NBA
Daily Fantasy NBA Adjusted Matchups and Pace for 3/19/21

Matchups matter in daily fantasy NBA, and it can be hard to keep everything -- pace, defensive rating, individual matchups -- tidy, so I wanted to fix that by dumping all the data into one place for ease of use.

So every day, I'll be posting some information on each game for the NBA main slate.

That'll include things like opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings for each team. I'll also look at opponent-adjusted paces based on the team-level as well.

And to go a step further, I'll provide defense-versus-position (DvP) values based on FanDuel points per minute allowed to each position. The way that'll work is to adjust on the individual level. This means looking at each player's total fantasy points per minute mark to figure out an expected output in a game and comparing it to what actually happened. Holding a superstar and a role player to the same FanDuel-point-per-minute mark isn't quite the same. These values will adjust for expectation.

These values initially included last season's data but now show only stats from the 2020-21 season.

Adjusted Offensive Rating and Opponent Defensive Rating

This table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Team Opp Over/
Under
Spread Implied
Total
Adj.
Offensive
Rating
Rank Opp Adj.
Defensive
Rating
Rank
PHXMIN233.0-11.0122.0117.98116.127
BOSSAC233.0-7.0120.0114.411125.230
UTAHTOR230.5-5.0117.75121.82112.817
BKNORL224.0-10.5117.25125.11113.422
DENCHI225.5-7.0116.25121.73112.316
DALPOR227.0-3.5115.25115.09121.229
MEMGS220.5-8.5114.50107.520106.75
SACBOS233.07.0113.0114.012113.623
TORUTAH230.55.0112.75112.213106.34
PORDAL227.03.5111.75119.46113.421
MINPHX233.011.0111.0102.226107.17
MIAIND215.5-4.0109.75103.225110.211
CHIDEN225.57.0109.25110.617111.915
HOUDET214.0-2.0108.096.230112.919
SACLE211.0-4.5107.75107.819114.924
ORLBKN224.010.5106.7598.328115.425
GSMEM220.58.5106.0106.022107.98
DETHOU214.02.0106.0105.323111.713
INDMIA215.54.0105.75109.718105.43
CLESA211.04.5103.2597.429109.010

Adjusted Pace and Expected Pace, Offensive Rating, and Points

This table shows each team's adjusted pace and adjusted opponent pace to find expected pace. Expected offensive rating combines each team's adjusted offensive rating and the opponent's adjusted defensive rating. Combining expected pace and expected offensive rating gives us expected points.

This table is sorted by matchup in terms of fastest average pace.

Team Opp Adj.
Pace
Rank Opp
Adj.
Pace
Rank Expected
Pace
Expected
Offensive
Rating
Expected
Points
GS MEM 103.3 2 100.6 11 102.0 106.9 109.0
MEM GS 100.6 11 103.3 2 102.0 107.1 109.2
ORL BKN 98.9 17 100.7 9 99.8 106.8 106.6
BKN ORL 100.7 9 98.9 17 99.8 119.3 119.0
BOS SAC 98.1 22 101.4 5 99.7 119.8 119.5
SAC BOS 101.4 5 98.1 22 99.7 113.8 113.5
TOR UTAH 99.4 16 99.7 14 99.5 109.3 108.8
UTAH TOR 99.7 14 99.4 16 99.5 117.3 116.8
DET HOU 97.0 28 101.7 4 99.3 108.5 107.8
HOU DET 101.7 4 97.0 28 99.3 104.5 103.8
MIN PHX 100.8 8 97.1 26 99.0 104.6 103.6
PHX MIN 97.1 26 100.8 8 99.0 117.0 115.8
CLE SA 98.2 21 99.5 15 98.8 103.2 102.0
SA CLE 99.5 15 98.2 21 98.8 111.3 110.0
CHI DEN 100.7 10 96.6 29 98.7 111.3 109.8
DEN CHI 96.6 29 100.7 10 98.7 117.0 115.5
IND MIA 99.8 13 97.1 27 98.4 107.5 105.8
MIA IND 97.1 27 99.8 13 98.4 106.7 105.0
DAL POR 97.8 23 97.4 25 97.6 118.1 115.2
POR DAL 97.4 25 97.8 23 97.6 116.4 113.6

Player-Level Adjusted FanDuel Points per Minute by Position

This table is presented to be viewed from an offensive perspective (i.e. the defensive marks reflect the offense's opponent).

The matchups shown are their opponent's defensive FanDuel-point-per-minute mark adjusted for individual opponents faced. League-wide ranks are in parenthesis. Because outliers are the primary matchups worth targeting and avoiding, green cells indicate top-five easiest matchups for the offense, and red indicate bottom-five.

Teams are sorted alphabetically for ease of use.

Offense Defense PG SG SF PF C
BKN ORL 1.04 (29) 0.94 (28) 0.91 (25) 0.97 (20) 0.97 (3)
BOS SAC 0.99 (21) 0.96 (29) 0.90 (24) 0.98 (23) 1.17 (24)
CHI DEN 0.91 (3) 0.86 (14) 0.93 (27) 0.92 (10) 0.94 (2)
CLE SA 1.01 (24) 0.85 (7) 0.86 (13) 0.94 (14) 1.11 (16)
DAL POR 1.01 (26) 0.97 (30) 0.81 (6) 0.94 (15) 1.06 (8)
DEN CHI 0.94 (9) 0.85 (9) 0.86 (8) 0.97 (18) 1.20 (28)
DET HOU 1.01 (23) 0.94 (27) 0.87 (15) 0.96 (17) 1.18 (27)
GS MEM 0.96 (15) 0.85 (5) 0.93 (28) 0.93 (11) 1.09 (12)
HOU DET 0.95 (11) 0.85 (11) 0.80 (5) 1.08 (30) 1.10 (13)
IND MIA 0.90 (2) 0.85 (10) 0.86 (11) 0.94 (13) 1.00 (4)
MEM GS 0.93 (8) 0.87 (16) 0.90 (22) 0.99 (26) 1.16 (22)
MIA IND 0.95 (13) 0.86 (12) 0.86 (12) 0.97 (19) 1.17 (26)
MIN PHX 0.88 (1) 0.80 (2) 0.78 (3) 0.90 (6) 1.10 (14)
ORL BKN 0.91 (4) 0.88 (22) 0.87 (14) 0.98 (21) 1.17 (25)
PHX MIN 1.05 (30) 0.87 (20) 0.89 (20) 0.98 (22) 1.26 (30)
POR DAL 0.92 (6) 0.82 (3) 0.89 (18) 0.95 (16) 1.12 (17)
SA CLE 0.96 (14) 0.87 (18) 0.87 (16) 0.99 (24) 1.14 (21)
SAC BOS 0.94 (10) 0.86 (13) 0.86 (10) 0.89 (5) 1.11 (15)
TOR UTAH 0.93 (7) 0.79 (1) 0.86 (9) 0.91 (7) 1.09 (11)
UTAH TOR 0.96 (16) 0.89 (23) 0.89 (19) 1.00 (27) 1.12 (19)

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