NBA

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Wednesday 3/10/21

Luka Doncic is a core play on tonight's two-game slate. Who else should we look to target?

The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.

Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's two-game slate, which locks at 8:00 PM Eastern.

Slate Overview

This table is via Brandon Gdula's matchup sheet -- it shows the over/under for each game, as well as each team's spread and implied total. The table also includes each squad's offensive rating, adjusted for opponent, as well as opponent-adjusted defensive rating for the opposing team, including the respective league-wide ranks for each of those ratings.

Teams are sorted by their implied total.

Team Opp Over/
Under
Spread Implied
Total
Adj.
Offensive
Rating
Rank Opp Adj.
Defensive
Rating
Rank
MEM WSH 236.5 -3.0 119.75 108.8 20 115.7 26
WSH MEM 236.5 3.0 116.75 107.1 21 107.5 8
DAL SA 222.5 -4.5 113.50 114.7 10 110.4 13
SA DAL 222.5 4.5 109.0 110.2 18 113.4 18


Point Guard

Russell Westbrook ($9,800) - As I outlined in the studs to target column, Westbrook is a solid play tonight. He has topped 40 FanDuel points in 12 straight games, and he's recorded at least 51.8 in 6 of his last 8 outings. Over the last four weeks, Russ is fifth in the league in fantasy points per game while sporting the sixth-highest usage rate during that stretch, according to RotoGrinders. This matchup fits right up Westbrook's alley, as the Memphis Grizzlies are allowing the fifth-most assists and second-most steals to opposing point guards this season, per FantasyPros.

Ja Morant ($8,000) - According to numberFire's DvP tool, the Washington Wizards rank second-worst against point guards this season -- enter Morant. The 21-year-old dropped 48.7 and 55.0 FanDuel points in his two games prior to the All-Star break, with the latter coming against these very same Wizards. Morant is a volatile fantasy producer, though he has showcased the ceiling to blow this salary out of the water -- he's recorded 42.4-plus in 5 of his last 10. Morant is our model's second-best projected value on the entire slate.

Honorable Mentions:
Derrick White ($5,600) - Our model's top-projected value and an excellent alternative to Westbrook or Morant. He dropped 45.4 fantasy points in his last game, which was nearly a month ago.
Jalen Brunson ($5,400) - Has eclipsed 25 FanDuel points in seven of his last nine. Spurs ranks 28th against point guards this season.

Shooting Guard

Dillon Brooks ($5,600) - Brooks is numberFire's top-projected point-per-dollar play at the position, and it's not particularly close. He's squaring off against a Washington team that's allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to shooting guards over their last 15 games, and his salary is quite reasonable. Brooks had posted 31.6 and 55.3 FanDuel points in the two games before the break, making it 12 times this season that he'd totaled at least 28.

DeMar DeRozan ($8,600) - I mentioned in the studs piece that DeRozan could be somewhat of a contrarian play on a tiny slate. His salary has never been higher and San Antonio is pretty close to full health, so he could be somewhat overlooked. The matchup against the Dallas Mavericks is a good one. Throughout their last 15 games, the Mavs have surrendered the eighth-most real-life and sixth-most fantasy points to the position. The 31-year-old posted 47.2 in this matchup earlier this season.

Honorable Mentions:
Bradley Beal ($10,500) - Memphis is sixth-best against shooting guards this season, but they're ninth-worst in their last seven games. Beal has topped 50 FanDuel points in 7 of his last 11, but he managed just 34.7 in this matchup eight days ago.
Desmond Bane ($3,500) - Has posted 14.2, 16.9, and 34.9 FanDuel points in his last three. Wouldn't need much to return value at the minimum salary.

Small Forward

Luka Doncic ($11,000) - Having Doncic at small forward saves us from having to dig through a pile of crap twice at the position. Luka is projected to be the highest-scoring player on the slate by 8.4 FanDuel points, and numberFire has him outscoring the next-closest small forward by a whopping 27.2. The 22-year-old pegged the Spurs for 61.3 FanDuel points in January and is averaging 60.7 fantasy points in seven matchups against teams that are bottom-five versus point guards this season. What else needs to be said here?

Kyle Anderson ($6,500) - Over their last 15 games, no team has allowed more fantasy points to small forwards than the Wizards. Sure, Anderson's a more risky play now that Justise Winslow has returned, but his upside in this matchup should be quite enticing. The 27-year-old has garnered at least 29.6 FanDuel points 17 times this season, including 11 outputs of 33.7-plus.

Honorable Mentions:
Rui Hachimura ($5,000) - Has maxed out at 15.1 fantasy points in his last four, but Memphis ranks 28th against the position in 2020-21.
Justise Winslow ($4,800) - Gets the same mouth-watering draw as Anderson. Winslow has put up 23.0 and 29.6 FanDuel points in two of his last three efforts.

Power Forward

Kristaps Porzingis ($8,300) - Our algo has Porzingis dropping 18.1 more fantasy points than anyone else at the position. The Latvian has only eclipsed 38.5 FanDuel points twice in his last eight outings, though it's possible that the break could be what he needed to get back into form.

Brandon Clarke ($6,200) - The Wiz rank 23rd against power forwards and 29th versus centers this campaign, which makes this a delicious matchup for Clarke. The 24-year-old whipped up 34 FanDuel points against Washington last week, his second time in three contests that he'd managed at least 34.

Honorable Mentions:
LaMarcus Aldridge ($5,500) - Has posted 30-plus fantasy points in 7 of his last 17. Dallas is just 18th against power forwards this season, though they've been better since Porzingis returned to the lineup.
Moe Wagner ($4,000) - Has eclipsed 25 FanDuel points in 4 of his last 10. He only played 11.1 minutes in the last matchup between these two teams.

Center

Jakob Poeltl ($6,500) - Poeltl has recorded at least 31.1 fantasy points in 7 of his last 11 games, including 5 outputs of 36.2-plus. He'll be going up against a Dallas interior that ranks 20th against centers this season, allowing 54.2 FanDuel points per game to the position.

Honorable Mentions:
Jonas Valanciunas ($7,000) - Only one team (Minnesota) has been worse against centers than the Wizards this season. Valanciunas has put up at least 33.5 fantasy points in 9 of his last 15 games.