NBA Betting Guide for 3/3/21: 3 Underdogs Our Algorithm Likes Tonight
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Brooklyn Nets at Houston Rockets
Our algorithm is showing value on the Houston Rockets against the Brooklyn Nets on the moneyline and with the point spread, but I'm not quite there. It does like the over/under (228.5), and that's something that the betting public also likes (65% of the betting tickets and 60% of the money is on the over).
Coincidentally, the Nets' over rate (66.7% of their games went over the closing total) is the second-highest rate in the NBA, and the Rockets' 36.4% over rate is the second-lowest.
But both of these teams are bottom-half in defensive rating over the past 15 games, which is very good for the Nets' chances to score (they're third in offensive rating over the past 15). Yes, the Rockets are dead last (101.4 points per 100 possessions), but both the algorithm and the betting public like this one to put up combined points.
Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings
The Los Angeles Lakers are dealing with numerous injuries (namely to Anthony Davis, Marc Gasol, and Kyle Kuzma). Without those three on the floor, the Lakers have played 301 minutes and have actually posted a net rating of +6.4 (from a 107.8 offensive rating and a 101.4 defensive rating).
If you also take LeBron James off the court there (it's just an 83-minute sample), the Lakers just have shown some ugly numbers (94.7 offensive rating and a 92.0 defensive rating) for still a net of +2.7.
Despite this, the Kings are 3.5-point favorites, and our algorithm is liking the Lakers' side as a four-star recommendation out of five. Our algo shows LA as 70.7% likely to cover that number and still views them as outright favorites.
Though there's some smart money indications on the Kings' spread (33% of the bets but 44% of the money are on them to cover), we still have a majority of bets and money on the Lakers to keep it within 3.5.
Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers
It's finding Portland +2.0 as a three-star recommendation out of five and the Portland moneyline (+116) to be a three-star recommendation. The moneyline odds suggest that Portland is just 46.3% likely to win, but our algorithm is giving them actually a pretty heavy 61.5% chance to win outright, so there is value on the spread and moneyline here, according to numberFire's model.
The betting public is a little more torn, though 62% of the bets and 57% of the money is on Portland to win outright. Those numbers are 56% and 44%, respectively, on the spread (+2.0).