3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 3/1/21

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at Online Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Mike Conley Over 5.5 Assists (-120)

Mike Conley and the Utah Jazz are facing the New Orleans Pelicans in a game with a 236.5-point over/under. The Jazz are 7.0-point favorites in this spot.

That bodes well for Conley's assist numbers. Our algorithm projects Conley for 6.2 helpers in this matchup. He has had 0, 5, 8, and 7 assists in his three games since returning from a hamstring injury over 25.3, 29.3, 26.9, and 33.0 minutes.

Conley's per-minute average of 0.20 assists would total 6.4 over his projected 32.1 minutes, and the Pelicans allow 27.9 assists per 100 possessions, the second-highest rate in the NBA. They also allow 10.7 assists per game to opposing point guards, the highest rate in the NBA and one of two marks above 10.0.

The elevated scoring potential in a game with this high over/under and the promising matchup against the Pelicans' assist-friendly defense should set up for Conley to rack up dimes over 30-plus minutes.

Zion Williamson Under 26.5 Points (-108)

Now, I just talked up the appeal of the Jazz/Pelicans game, but I'm going to go with an under on Zion Williamson's points prop at 26.5.

numberFire's algorithm is projecting him for just 22.4 points against the Jazz, whose defense ranks third in defensive rating and second in adjusted defensive rating this season.

The Jazz's frontcourt players -- Rudy Gobert, Royce O'Neale ,and Derrick Favors -- all rank above the league average in BBall-Index's D-LEBRON stat, and O'Neale holds opponents to 2.7 percentage points below their average field goal percentage with Gobert at -7.7.

Utah faces a bottom-10 rate of field goals from within three feet, which is right in Williamson's wheelhouse. He should still have a big impact, but it may not be specifically as a scorer.

Gary Trent Jr. Over 3.5 Made Three-Pointers (+114)

One of my favorite ways to bet props in the NBA is just to see which teams allow an absurd number of three-point attempts.

The Charlotte Hornets do just that: 45.7% of field goal attempts against them this season have been from beyond the arc, which is the second-highest rate in the NBA. All we can really ask for is the shot volume when looking for three-pointer props, and so that check out.

What also checks out is Gary Trent Jr.'s three-point attempt rate of 59.0%. That's the sixth-highest number in the NBA among players with at least 10 field goal attempts per game.

In total, Trent is averaging 7.8 three-point attempts and 3.2 makes per game, but that attempt number should climb higher given the defensive matchup against the poor perimeter defense of the Hornets.

numberFire projects Trent to make 3.7 threes on 8.4 attempts, so with the plus odds, it's a pretty easy one to get behind for a sharpshooter in this matchup.