3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 2/24/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Mikal Bridges Over 12.5 Points (+100)
These are some nice odds for Mikal Bridges' points prop. We're projecting him for 14.2 points outright, which makes this one appealing from the onset. Digging deeper, there's plenty to like, as well.
Bridges' overall per-minute scoring rate of 0.43 remains the same against bottom-half defenses, and at his projected rate of 33.4 minutes, that tallies up to 14.4 points.
There's blowout risk for sure because the Suns are 10-point favorites, but the Hornets are the second-worst team at defending the three-point line in terms of three-point attempt rate, and 48.9% of Bridges' shots come from behind the arc. He could pile up points in bunches with that aspect of this matchup in his favor.
Darius Bazley Over 7.5 Rebounds (-122)
San Antonio ranks just 24th in rebounding rate in the NBA, hauling in 48.6% of possible boards. That's around 97.7% of the NBA's median output for teams. But on a per-minute basis, it's even better: the Spurs give up a league-high 0.80 rebounds per minute.
With the Spurs' long list of injuries, there are even more positive splits for Bazley's rebounding potential, and without DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Rudy Gay on the floor, they allow 0.89 rebounds per minute to opponents.
Bazley himself hauls in 0.23 boards per minute, which totals 7.6 boards over his projected 33.0 minutes -- before adjusting for such a good matchup on the glass.
Donovan Mitchell Under 24.5 Points (-104)
However, without those two on the floor, the Lakers' defense actually has been better from a defensive rating standpoint. It's 106.8 with them but 101.2 without them. The 101.2-points-allowed-per-100-possession rate would easily lead the NBA (the Lakers lead with a 105.5 overall defensive rating).
I'm not implying the defense is better without them -- only showing that they don't fall apart by any means.
Mitchell's points-per-minute rate falls to 0.67 against top-10 adjusted defenses this season compared to an out-of-split number of 0.76. That -- over his 33.1 projected minutes is the difference between 22.2 points and 25.2 points.
numberFire's baseline projection for him is 22.6 points, nearly two full shy of his posted number.