NBA Betting Guide for 2/24/21: What the Data Says About the Jazz vs. Lakers Game
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Golden State Warriors at Indiana Pacers
These two teams have had some drastically different results on the over/unders this season. So far, 58.6% of Indiana Pacers games resulted in the over, and that's the seventh-highest rate in the NBA. The Golden State Warriors have seen the over hit in just 43.8% of their games, the sixth-lowest rate in the league.
Bettors, though, are taking a stand on the under. So far, 41% of the betting tickets are on the under, but that's accompanied by 56% of the money. That's a 15-point gap, one of the largest on the board.
The total has actually climbed from 228.5 at the open to 230.5, so we can jump in and get some extra value.
numberFire's median projected point total for this game is only 223.6. The under is more than 61% likely to hit at the new number.
Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns
The Phoenix Suns are also getting love from the betting public.
oddsFire shows 59% of the bets on the spread (Suns -9.5) plus 78% of the money on their side. They're dominating the moneyline market, as well, with north of 82% of the bets and money.
My ELO-based adjusted point differential ratings for this season show the Suns as the fourth-best team in the NBA (+5.70) while the Charlotte Hornets are just 19th at -1.09. That's a 6.8-point gap, but the Hornets aren't fully healthy with Gordon Hayward questionable and Devonte' Graham out.
The Hornets, with Hayward and Graham, are actually a +6.1 in net rating over 563 minutes but a -7.6 without them over 208 minutes.
Using those inputs compared to the Suns' elite data, my model predicted a massive 14.5-point spread in favor of the Suns, supporting the betting trends.
Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz
The Utah Jazz are in their own tier in adjusted point differential (+10.42), leading the second-place Milwaukee Bucks (+7.12) by 3.3 points.
The Los Angeles Lakers are in fifth at +4.78, which is 5.64 points off the Jazz's pace. There's more to it to get the Jazz to be 8.5-point favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook, though.
Anthony Davis remains out, and Dennis Schroder is also out. The Lakers' net rating falls hugely from +9.2 with them to +3.3 without them on the court.
Using those data points -- over a 553-minute sample -- the Jazz come out as double-digit favorites (13.5 points, actually) in my model, as well.
That helps support the gap in betting tickets (42%) and money (58%) that is coming in on the Jazz to cover that 8.5-point spread, which is lower on FanDuel sportsbook than it is elsewhere.
