3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 2/23/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Daniel Theis Over 5.5 Rebounds (-138)
Daniel Theis has been seeing big minutes over the past two games, logging 38 and 33 minutes apiece. With the added court time, he's snagged 14 total boards across those two outings, getting 6 in one and 8 in the other.
Tonight Theis is taking on a Dallas Mavericks team that averages the fourth-fewest boards per night in the Association. The Mavs allow opposing frontcourts to total the eighth-most rebounds per night. Plus, Dallas is on the second leg of a back-to-back and could be sans Kristaps Porzingis, who sat on Monday.
Our model sees some value here as we forecast Thies to pull down 6.7 boards tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 32.5 Points (-106)
It feels scary to bet the under on anything Giannis Antetokounmpo in a matchup with the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves. But the Bucks are so much better than the 'Wolves, it could make it hard for Giannis to get to the over on his points prop.
Our nERD metric ranks the Bucks 3rd and Minnesota 29th. Milwaukee is an 11.0-point favorite, and that line could grow throughout the day as the betting public is all over the Bucks, with 74% of the money on the spread backing the Deer, per oddsFire.
For the season, Antetokounmpo is averaging 28.4 points per game. Oddly enough, he's scoring fewer points in wins (25.9) than in losses (31.6). But when you look his minutes in the split, it makes sense as he's playing only 31.4 minutes per game in wins, compared to 36.9 in defeats. The Bucks are having a weird run as only 2 of their past 13 games have been decided by single digits -- even though they are just 7-6 in that time. Odds are Milwaukee won't have too many more double-digit losses the rest of the way, but they should continue to have some lopsided wins. Today figures to be one such victory.
Giannis has gone for 33-plus points in just 2 of the Bucks' last 10 double-digit wins. We project him for 30.2 points versus the Timberwolves, and we have Milwaukee winning by roughly 16 points. If you think Minnesota keeps it fairly competitive, go for it, but the over looks awfully risky.
Seth Curry Over 12.5 Points (-108)
Seth Curry has played at least 34 minutes in four straight games, and he's attempted at least nine shots in all six. The negative is that he's gone for 13-plus points in only two of those six games, but our model loves the over on this line as we peg him to score 15.0 points today against the Toronto Raptors.
Curry has scored well against Toronto this season, averaging 14.5 points per game against the Raps. Toronto is allowing the fourth-highest three-point attempt rate, with opponents hoisting 44.0% of their shots from deep. That's perfect for Curry as 47.6% of his shots come from three.
Taking the over here is banking on Curry hitting some triples, and there's a lot of variance in the three ball. But with the good matchup and the big minutes Curry is getting, the over is a solid bet.