FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Friday 2/19/21

The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.

Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's nine-game slate, which locks at 7:00 PM Eastern.

Slate Overview

Via Brandon Gdula's matchup sheet, this table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Point Guard

Key Studs: As I covered in my studs to target column, Chris Paul ($7,800) is an excellent play tonight. Paul has put up at least 42.9 FanDuel points in 8 of his last 12 outings, and that includes five outputs greater than 47.0. Tonight, he'll square off against a New Orleans Pelicans team that ranks 26th against point guards, per numberFire's DvP tool. The Pels have allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position over their last 15 games, according to FantasyPros.

Trae Young ($9,200) faces a Boston Celtics team that has struggled a bit against point guards without Marcus Smart in the lineup. The usually stout Celtics have surrendered the eighth-most fantasy points to the position over their last seven games. Young has recorded 48.3 or more FanDuel points in 10 of his last 14 games.

Other Stud to Consider: The Orlando Magic rank 25th versus the position this season, which means that Stephen Curry ($10,000) is definitely in play. Curry has exceeded 51 fantasy points five times in his last nine games.

Mid-Range and Value Plays: Ja Morant ($7,100) is our model's third-best projected value at point guard tonight. Morant has stuffed the stat sheet in his last two games, resulting in outputs of 42.4 and 46.2 FanDuel points. numberFire's algorithm doesn't seem bothered by the fact that the Detroit Pistons are pretty good against the position, projecting him for 37.4 fantasy points. Fellow Memphis Grizzlies guard De'Anthony Melton ($3,800) is questionable tonight, but our model has him as the top-projected value at the position if he suits up. Both he and Morant would benefit from the added usage if Dillon Brooks (thigh) were to be declared out.

Patrick Beverley ($4,500) has the ability to contribute in so many different categories, which can make him matchup-proof even against a team like the Utah Jazz. Pat managed 26.8 FanDuel points against Utah on Wednesday, and he's our model's fourth-best projected value at the position.

numberFire's algorithm projects Kemba Walker ($6,200) to be the second-best point-per-dollar play at point tonight. Walker is going up against an Atlanta Hawks team that ranks 27th versus the position in 2020-21. Given that Kemba has maxed out at 37.4 fantasy points in his last 10 games, I'd rather dish out an extra $400 and roster Delon Wright ($6,600). Wright has managed 33.4 or more FanDuel points in five of his last seven games, and that includes outings of 39.4, 43.7, and 44.3. He'll face a Memphis defense that ranks 23rd against the position.

Shooting Guard

Key Studs: In the aforementioned studs piece, I went in-depth about why Donovan Mitchell ($8,200) is a worthwhile target tonight. Mitchell has a bout with a Los Angeles Clippers team that's allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to shooting guards.

The Minnesota Timberwolves aren't as generous to the position, but that doesn't stop our model from dishing out a friendly projection for Fred VanVleet ($8,000). According to RotoGrinders, FVV sees a 3.3-percentage-point bump in usage with Kyle Lowry off the court this season. Toronto Raptors head coach said yesterday that he doesn't expect Lowry to play tonight. VanVleet has put up 50-plus fantasy points in 6 of his last 12 efforts.

Other Studs to Consider: The Pels rank 26th against shooting guards, which means we have to consider Devin Booker ($7,700). Booker has eclipsed 40 FanDUel points four times in his last six games.

Mid-Range and Value Options: Seth Curry ($4,000) is numberFire's top-projected value at shooting guard and fourth-best projected value on the entire slate. While Ben Simmons is probable to return to the lineup tonight, Shake Milton remains doubtful, so Curry's role should be secure. The 30-year-old would need 20 fantasy points to accrue our baseline value figure of 5.0, and he's posted 22.8 or more in four of his last six games.

If Lowry sits, it might be worth going back to Norman Powell ($5,800). Powell dropped 29 real-life points and 43.3 fantasy points with Lowry out last night. It was the ninth time in his last 13 games that Powell went for at least 30 FanDuel points.

Our model's second-best value at the position is Donte DiVincenzo ($5,100). DiVincenzo needs 25.5 for our baseline value, and he's trumped that in seven of his last nine.

Desmond Bane ($3,900) is expected to return from a four-game absence tonight. Bane had exceeded 25 FanDuel points in three of the five games before his absence, and he'd be an especially intriguing play if Brooks doesn't go.

Small Forward

Studs to Consider: We don't have word yet on the status of Kawhi Leonard ($9,800), but if he plays and Paul George doesn't, Leonard would be a core play for me. Kawhi had topped 50 FanDuel points -- often with ease -- in 12 of his 23 games before a leg injury knocked him out. Leonard put up 61.7 points against Utah in January.

As far as matchups are concerned, none are better than the one Khris Middleton ($7,300) draws tonight. On the season, the Oklahoma City Thunder are surrendering the most fantasy points to small forwards. Middleton has struggled mightily in his last four games, and we can hope that his roster percentage doesn't explode because of it. Khash is our model's fourth-best value at the position.

Over their last 15 games, the Wolves have surrendered the most real-life points and seventh-most fantasy points to small forwards -- enter Pascal Siakam ($8,700). Siakam has managed at least 40 FanDuel points in 8 of his last 10 games, and that includes five efforts with more than 48.

Mid-Range and Value Options: With Larry Nance Jr., Taurean Prince, and Andre Drummond out for the Cleveland Cavaliers, Cedi Osman ($4,200) is our model's top value at the position. With those three out on Monday, Osman totaled 38.5 FanDuel points in 35.2 minutes. Tonight he'll be facing a Denver Nuggets team that's fourth-worst against small forwards and has allowed the most fantasy points to the position over their last 15 games. Osman is a core play.

Going up against Osman is Michael Porter Jr. ($5,500), who owns our algorithm's third-best point-per-dollar projection. The Cavs have been the fourth-most-generous team to small forwards over their last 15, and that's on the back of allowing the second-most real-life points. With Gary Harris, Paul Millsap, and P.J. Dozier out for Denver and Will Barton and JaMychal Green questionable, MPJ should get all he can handle tonight.

Our model is also high on Josh Hart ($4,700) and Danny Green ($3,500). Both players are more suited for tournaments than cash games, as they're incredibly hit or miss.

Power Forward

Key Stud: numberFire's algorithm projects Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300) to outscore the next-closest player at the position by 16.5 FanDuel points. The Thunder have been the seventh-most-generous team to power forwards over their last 15 games, and Giannis has equaled at least 65 fantasy points in four of his last five.

Other Studs to Consider: The Phoenix Suns possess one of the league's stingiest defenses across the board, but we can't discount Zion Williamson ($8,700) given his current form. Zion has bested 45 fantasy points in four straight and in six of his last nine games. If Jaylen Brown (knee) is out tonight, Jayson Tatum ($9,400) would be in play. Tatum sees a 4.8-percentage-point bump in usage with Brown and Marcus Smart off the court this season.

Mid-Range and Value Options: JaMychal Green ($4,200) is currently questionable, but if he suits up, he would be our model's top point-per-dollar pick at power forward. Green has seen 28.6 and 29.8 minutes in his last two games with Millsap out, and he accrued 35 FanDuel points in Wednesday's matchup with the Washington Wizards. As an added bonus, the Cavs have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to power forwards over their last 15 games.

Jae Crowder ($4,800) has transcended 30 FanDuel points in three of his last four games and in six of his last nine fully healthy contests.

The Raptors rank 26th against power forwards, so Jaden McDaniels ($3,800) is an interesting play if you need a salary-saving option. McDaniels managed 25.3 fantasy points in 37.1 minutes on Wednesday, and he has now topped 23.0 FanDuel points in three of his last five games.

Finally, Chris Boucher ($7,200) sees plenty of time at center for the Raptors, who are facing a Minnesota interior that's allowing the most fantasy points to the position. Boucher is an intriguing play for those looking to be contrarian in tournaments.

Center

Studs to Consider: The center position is too loaded to just zone in on one guy. Joel Embiid ($10,300) is both our model's top-projected scorer and top-projected value at the position. Embiid has produced at least 52.3 FanDuel points in 10 of his last 14 games, and he's had fewer than 45 only twice during that stretch.

Nikola Jokic ($10,600) is going up against a Cavs defense that's allowed the second-most fantasy points to centers over their last seven games, coinciding with their benching of Andre Drummond. Jokic has exceeded 55 fantasy points in 14 of his last 18 games, which is nothing short of remarkable. I'd save cap for the center position and just flip a coin between Jokic and Embiid.

Value Options: If you're in need of a salary-saver at center, you can look to Willy Hernangomez ($4,400), who would get a huge boost if Steven Adams (ankle) can't play. Hernangomez has topped 25 fantasy points 5 times in his last 10 games, including three outings with more than 30.