NBA Betting Guide for 2/18/21: Scouring All 3 Games for Betting Value
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks
This is a rematch from Tuesday night, a game won by the Toronto Raptors 124-113. The Raptors put up an offensive rating of 118.1 by winning three of the four factors -- effective field goal percentage, turnover rate, and offensive rebounding rate. That game was tight throughout with identical scores in the first and second quarters before the Raptors won the third quarter by three and the fourth quarter by eight.
The Milwaukee Bucks won 115-108 on January 27th, and Kyle Lowry is questionable to play.
But let's face it: the Bucks are reeling right now and have dropped four straight games while posting a net rating of -7.0 in that span, ranking them 27th in the NBA.
That is not deterring the betting public. oddsFire shows that 55% of the bets and 59% of the money is on the Bucks to cover their spread (-6.0), which is down from -6.5 at the open. Further, 67% of the bets and 76% of the money is on the Bucks' moneyline, indicating a bit of smart money differential there. We also get that to a larger degree on the total: 74% of the bets but 87% of the money is on the over.
numberFire's algorithm is not quite as heavy one way or the other and shows the best value on this game as the Milwaukee moneyline (-245). We rate it as a two-star recommendation out of five. We project them to win this game 75.9% of the time, which means their moneyline should be around -315.
Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings
This is a rematch from a January 30th game, one that the Miami Heat won 105-104. It was pretty up-and-down in terms of quarter-by-quarter scoring. But the Sacramento Kings had an effective field goal percentage of 58.2% to the Heat's 53.9% and still lost. The big outlier was free throws per field goal attempt (0.059 for the Kings and 0.286 for the Heat). Sacramento made just 5 of 11 freebies, and the Heat went 22 for 26. Tough scene.
The Heat moneyline is getting the love on FanDuel Sportsbook from a betting angle (57%), but we are seeing 65% of the money on the Kings to win, so that's a pretty substantial gap between bet percentage and money percentage on the Kings' moneyline (22 points). Despite the moneyline trends, we're seeing right around 70% of the bets and money on the Heat to cover the spread (-1.0, down from -1.5).
numberFire's algorithm is showing some value on the Kings, though, which lines up with the money on the moneyline. We project them to win this game 59.7% of the time, which is 9.2 points higher than their moneyline (-102) implies. Both the Kings +1.0 and the Kings' moneyline are rating out as two-star recommendations.
The under (225.5) is getting three-star love, but that doesn't jive with the 84% of the money on the over. We still have some value on the Kings in this one.
Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Lakers
Injuries are going to be a factor in this game for sure. Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant are out for the Los Angeles Lakers and Brooklyn Nets, respectively.
Using pbpstats.com, here are splits in some relevant samples.
| Split | Record | Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating | Net Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games Without Durant, With Irving and Harden | 3-2 | 124.20 | 120.90 | +3.30 |
| Games Without Davis | 5-1 | 112.80 | 106.60 | +6.20 |
Both teams are positives without their star forwards -- because they have depth elsewhere, but the big outlier is the discrepancy in the actual ratings, not the net ratings. The under has plummeted from 237.5 at the open to 232.0. Our algorithms sees that as a three-star recommendation, but as usual, the over is getting the love based on oddsFire.
Anyway, numberFire loves the Lakers in this game. Our algorithm views their moneyline (-136) as a full-on five-star recommendation, and the Lakers -2.5 is a four-star recommendation.
The betting public is split right down the middle on the moneyline but surprisingly likes the Lakers' spread a bit (62% of the bets and 60% of the money). My ELO-based adjusted point differentials show the Lakers as a +6.2 and the Nets as a +3.2, a 3.0-point gap before factoring in any homecourt advantage (which has been 0.8 points so far this season). Once again, it looks less like an over/under to target and more the spread and moneyline.
