NBA
Daily Fantasy NBA Adjusted Matchups and Pace for 2/12/21

Matchups matter in daily fantasy NBA, and it can be hard to keep everything -- pace, defensive rating, individual matchups -- tidy, so I wanted to fix that by dumping all the data into one place for ease of use.

So every day, I'll be posting some information on each game for the NBA main slate.

That'll include things like opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings for each team. I'll also look at opponent-adjusted paces based on the team-level as well.

And to go a step further, I'll provide defense-versus-position (DvP) values based on FanDuel points per minute allowed to each position. The way that'll work is to adjust on the individual level. This means looking at each player's total fantasy points per minute mark to figure out an expected output in a game and comparing it to what actually happened. Holding a superstar and a role player to the same FanDuel-point-per-minute mark isn't quite the same. These values will adjust for expectation.

These values initially included last season's data but now show only stats from the 2020-21 season.

Adjusted Offensive Rating and Opponent Defensive Rating

This table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Team Opp Over/
Under
Spread Implied
Total
Adj.
Offensive
Rating
Rank Opp Adj.
Defensive
Rating
Rank
DALNO233.5-3.0118.25116.59118.926
DENOKC223.0-12.0117.50123.25113.915
LACCHI228.0-6.5117.25128.42117.624
UTAHMIL232.5-1.5117.0124.14111.210
MILUTAH232.51.5115.50131.01103.72
SACORL223.5-7.5115.50116.311119.327
CHAMIN227.0-4.0115.50113.018118.725
NODAL233.53.0115.25118.78115.218
ATLSA227.0-1.5114.25115.116115.117
PORCLE222.0-4.5113.25121.36113.413
LALMEM218.5-8.0113.25115.812113.914
SAATL227.01.5112.75110.021111.19
BOSDET216.0-7.5111.75115.515117.021
MINCHA227.04.0111.50100.830115.719
CHILAC228.06.5110.75116.410112.712
NYWSH218.0-3.5110.75102.526124.030
CLEPOR222.04.5108.75101.129123.429
ORLSAC223.57.5108.0101.128123.228
WSHNY218.03.5107.25107.323106.13
OKCDEN223.012.0105.50104.724117.523
MEMLAL218.58.0105.25112.019102.81
DETBOS216.07.5104.25108.422114.316

Adjusted Pace and Expected Pace, Offensive Rating, and Points

This table shows each team's adjusted pace and adjusted opponent pace to find expected pace. Expected offensive rating combines each team's adjusted offensive rating and the opponent's adjusted defensive rating. Combining expected pace and expected offensive rating gives us expected points.

This table is sorted by matchup in terms of fastest average pace. Remember, these are now showing just 2020-21 stats, so things get a little out of whack because of a smaller sample.

Team Opp Adj.
Pace
Rank Opp
Adj.
Pace
Rank Expected
Pace
Expected
Offensive
Rating
Expected
Points
MIL UTAH 103.6 3 99.8 20 101.7 117.3 119.4
UTAH MIL 99.8 20 103.6 3 101.7 117.7 119.7
ORL SAC 99.9 19 102.5 7 101.2 112.1 113.5
SAC ORL 102.5 7 99.9 19 101.2 117.8 119.2
MIN CHA 101.9 10 100.0 17 101.0 108.2 109.3
CHA MIN 100.0 17 101.9 10 101.0 115.8 116.9
DEN OKC 99.0 26 102.7 5 100.8 118.6 119.6
OKC DEN 102.7 5 99.0 26 100.8 111.1 112.1
ATL SA 100.7 15 100.9 13 100.8 115.1 116.0
SA ATL 100.9 13 100.7 15 100.8 110.5 111.5
NY WSH 97.0 30 104.2 2 100.6 113.3 114.0
WSH NY 104.2 2 97.0 30 100.6 106.7 107.3
LAL MEM 99.5 21 101.7 11 100.6 114.8 115.5
MEM LAL 101.7 11 99.5 21 100.6 107.4 108.0
CHI LAC 103.1 4 97.8 29 100.5 114.5 115.1
LAC CHI 97.8 29 103.1 4 100.5 123.0 123.6
DAL NO 100.6 16 99.4 22 100.0 117.7 117.7
NO DAL 99.4 22 100.6 16 100.0 117.0 117.0
CLE POR 98.7 27 100.0 18 99.4 112.2 111.5
POR CLE 100.0 18 98.7 27 99.4 117.3 116.6
BOS DET 99.3 23 99.1 25 99.2 116.3 115.3
DET BOS 99.1 25 99.3 23 99.2 111.4 110.5

Player-Level Adjusted FanDuel Points per Minute by Position

This table is presented to be viewed from an offensive perspective (i.e. the defensive marks reflect the offense's opponent).

The matchups shown are their opponent's defensive FanDuel-point-per-minute mark adjusted for individual opponents faced. League-wide ranks are in parenthesis. Because outliers are the primary matchups worth targeting and avoiding, green cells indicate top-five easiest matchups for the offense, and red indicate bottom-five.

Teams are sorted alphabetically for ease of use.

Offense Defense PG SG SF PF C
ATL SA 1.08 (30) 0.82 (2) 0.91 (23) 0.96 (18) 1.10 (15)
BOS DET 0.98 (22) 0.90 (19) 0.78 (3) 1.06 (30) 1.09 (10)
CHA MIN 1.02 (27) 0.88 (16) 0.88 (10) 0.94 (13) 1.40 (30)
CHI LAC 0.96 (16) 0.90 (22) 0.75 (1) 0.84 (1) 0.97 (4)
CLE POR 1.01 (24) 0.97 (29) 0.81 (7) 0.94 (15) 1.10 (16)
DAL NO 0.96 (14) 0.95 (27) 0.94 (28) 0.89 (8) 1.03 (6)
DEN OKC 0.96 (17) 0.87 (14) 0.99 (30) 0.93 (12) 1.14 (23)
DET BOS 0.88 (2) 0.85 (10) 0.89 (16) 0.94 (14) 1.12 (18)
LAC CHI 1.00 (23) 0.91 (25) 0.81 (6) 0.97 (20) 1.09 (14)
LAL MEM 1.02 (25) 0.84 (9) 0.94 (27) 0.92 (10) 1.13 (21)
MEM LAL 0.94 (8) 0.85 (11) 0.80 (4) 0.86 (2) 1.08 (9)
MIL UTAH 0.89 (3) 0.84 (8) 0.84 (8) 0.87 (6) 1.09 (12)
MIN CHA 0.98 (20) 0.84 (5) 0.96 (29) 1.02 (28) 1.15 (25)
NO DAL 0.96 (13) 0.84 (6) 0.90 (18) 1.02 (29) 1.12 (19)
NY WSH 1.07 (29) 0.91 (23) 0.89 (17) 0.97 (19) 1.19 (27)
OKC DEN 0.92 (5) 0.91 (24) 0.93 (26) 0.87 (4) 0.95 (3)
ORL SAC 0.97 (18) 0.99 (30) 0.88 (12) 1.00 (26) 1.20 (28)
POR CLE 0.95 (11) 0.89 (18) 0.90 (19) 0.99 (25) 1.05 (7)
SA ATL 1.02 (26) 0.90 (21) 0.91 (22) 0.90 (9) 1.05 (8)
SAC ORL 1.02 (28) 0.96 (28) 0.92 (24) 0.99 (22) 0.94 (2)
UTAH MIL 0.94 (9) 0.81 (1) 0.91 (21) 0.95 (16) 1.09 (11)
WSH NY 0.90 (4) 0.82 (4) 0.81 (5) 0.87 (5) 1.23 (29)

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