3 NBA FanDuel Studs to Target on 2/3/21

Basketball is the most consistent sport for daily fantasy purposes.

A top slugger in baseball will have his fair share of 0-for-4 days, and an elite fantasy football player is at risk of having games where his team's offense as a whole is shut down. A high-salaried NBA stud is generally going to get his, though. With so many possessions in a game providing opportunities to produce, top fantasy basketball options will be posting high scores just about every night.

While this consistency puts us in a good position to identify top plays, it also means you can't afford to miss when you're paying a heavy salary to roster someone. Even with strong value plays in your lineup, getting a dud from a stud is likely going to leave your lineup lacking.

Let's get right into it and look at which top players should be the focal points of your lineups today.

Luka Doncic, PG, Dallas Mavericks

FanDuel Salary: $11,500

The Dallas Mavericks are narrow 1.5-point favorites over the Atlanta Hawks, which suggests that there won't be a blowout occurring. That should get Luka Doncic to log his usual minutes in a game with a solid 223.5-point over/under.

The Hawks are 10th in adjusted defensive rating this season, but they also rank just 23rd in player-level adjusted FanDuel points per minute allowed to point guards this season, so Doncic could be fully in play for a ceiling game.

numberFire is projecting Doncic for a 28.7-point, 10.3-rebound, 9.5-assist near-triple-double in this spot. That's good for 56.2 FanDuel points (4.89 per $1,000 in salary). That's a full 15.6 FanDuel points more than any other point guard on the board. We'll have value to get to Doncic, so we should make sure we don't miss out on his potential ceiling.

Jimmy Butler, SF, Miami Heat

FanDuel Salary: $8,500

Jimmy Butler has been Jimmy Butler in his two games since returning from a long hiatus. He has played 33 and 37 minutes in those while producing 50.4 and 52.3 FanDuel points, respectively. That stemmed from a per-game line of 27.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 6.5 assists. He also had four steals last game, which certainly doesn't hurt in the fantasy department.

Butler is maintaining a 27.3% usage rate and a per-minute average of 1.33 FanDuel points on the season. He'll bring those elite rates into a matchup against the Washington Wizards, who rank 15th in adjusted FanDuel points per minute allowed to small forwards, 29th in adjusted defensive rating, and 3rd in adjusted pace. It's a premium spot for Butler to cash in on the 34.2 minutes we project him for (at a per-minute rate of 1.29 FanDuel points for a total of 44.0).

He's the best value above $7,500, per numberFire's algorithm.

Jayson Tatum, PF, Boston Celtics

FanDuel Salary: $9,500

The Boston Celtics and Jayson Tatum get the dreamy matchup against the Sacramento Kings tonight, so that's probably enough to get us on the Celtics' star. The Kings are 26th in adjusted FanDuel points per minute allowed to power forwards, 30th in adjusted defensive rating, and 11th in adjusted pace. Despite that, the Celtics are only 2.0-point favorites. That's good stuff.

Tatum has been logging big minutes (31, 34, 39, 38) since returning from his positive COVID-19 test with solid FanDuel point outings: 37.3, 45.4, 47.3, and 38.3. Two of those games have been against top-10 adjusted defenses, and three were against top-20 units.

It's safe to say this is a much better situation for Tatum, who owns a top-15 usage rate in the league (29.8%) and a good-not-great per-minute FanDuel-point rate (1.24). What really helps is the minutes being so high. numberFire projects Tatum for 36.9 minutes and 45.0 FanDuel points, which is good for 4.74 fantasy points per $1,000 in salary.