FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Tuesday 2/2/21

The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.

Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's 6-game slate, which locks at 7:00 PM Eastern.

Slate Overview

Via Brandon Gdula's matchup sheet, this table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

We have two games on this slate with projected totals above 240, and each of them have spreads within two points -- in other words, we're going to primarily (but not exclusively) target players from the Brooklyn Nets, Los Angeles Clippers, Washington Wizards, and Portland Trail Blazers.

Point Guard

Core Plays: I'll admit it -- I whiffed yesterday with my Damian Lillard ($10,200) recommendation. Not accounting for the blowout proved costly, though it would've been impossible to predict a loss of those proportions. However, the good news about that game is that Dame only played 27.4 minutes, so he should be relatively fresh heading into the second-half of the back-to-back against Washington. Oh, I should mention that this is a Washington team allowing the most FanDuel points to opposing point guards this season, according to numberFire's DvP tool. Don't be afraid to eat the chalk.

While they're not taking part in any of the matchups primed for fireworks, De'Anthony Melton ($4,800) and Cole Anthony ($5,000) are other potential core plays at point. In the last two games with Grayson Allen inactive, Melton has erupted for 35.3 and 40.8 FanDuel points -- the matchup isn't great but the value is tough to pass up on. Meanwhile, the Orlando Magic will be without Aaron Gordon, Markelle Fultz, and Michael Carter-Williams tonight, and Anthony's usage rate with those players off the court is 25.6%, according to RotoGrinders. With all of those players off the court five games ago, Anthony racked up 33 FanDuel points -- a similar output is certainly doable. I'd prefer Melton of the two.

Other Options: Russell Westbrook ($10,000) faces Portland, who is ceding the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards, and Westbrook did drop 71 FanDuel points last game. Despite a tough draw in the Golden State Warriors, Kemba Walker ($5,700) is worthy of consideration. In a small sample size with Marcus Smart, Payton Pritchard, and Romeo Langford off the court this season, Kemba has a 35.0% usage rate while averaging an additional 0.40 FanDuel points per minute. Walker is our model's second-best projected value at point guard behind only Cole Anthony.

Honorable Mention: If Norman Powell can't go tonight, Kyle Lowry ($7,500) comes into play. Lowry dropped 44.7 fantasy points on Sunday with both Powell and OG Anunoby off the court.

Shooting Guard

Core Plays: Bradley Beal ($10,800) is a tough fade, despite how chalky he might be. Beal has transcended 65 FanDuel points three times in his last eight games, and he has yet to post fewer than 40 in any game this season. Against a Portland team that ranks second-worst against shooting guards this season, Beal is very much in play.

Elsewhere, Paul George ($8,400) is going up against a Brooklyn team that has surrendered 124.5 points per game in the nine games since they traded for James Harden ($10,500). Yes, you read that right --124.5. At tonight's salary, George would need 42 FanDuel points to accrue our baseline value figure, and he's eclipsed that in 8 of his last 14 games. numberFire's algorithm projects George for 42.3 tonight.

Other Options: Terrence Ross ($4,700) is our model's top-projected value at the position. Ross would only need 23.5 fantasy points for a 5.0 value figure, and he's surpassed that number in five of the last night. The increased volume with Gordon out definitely shouldn't hurt. Jeremy Lamb ($5,300) has managed at least 29.5 FanDuel points in four of his last six games, which makes him very playable tonight. Though the matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies is a tough one, they do surrender the second-most steals plus blocks to shooting guards, and that's where a healthy chunk of Lamb's production has come in his last two outings. Gary Trent Jr. ($5,800) is also worthy of consideration fresh off a dud in last night's blowout. Trent Jr. had garnered 28.2, 29.1, and 37.2 FanDuel points in the three games prior, while seeing more than 36 minutes of action in each contest.

Honorable Mentions: Gary Trent Jr. ($5,800) is also worthy of consideration fresh off a dud in last night's blowout. Trent Jr. had garnered 28.2, 29.1, and 37.2 FanDuel points in the three games prior, while seeing more than 36 minutes of action in each contest. Finally, Terence Davis II ($3,800) is a salary-saving dart throw if Norman Powell can't go. Davis has recorded 19.4 and 19.8 fantasy points in his last two games without Powell in the lineup.

Power Forward

Core Plays: There's a 13.3-point gap between Jayson Tatum ($9,500) and our model's next-highest projected scorer at power forwards, which makes him a priority tonight -- Domantas Sabonis ($9,100) is another option, but more on him later. Tatum will take on a Warriors team that's sixth-most-generous to power forwards this season. In 170.7 minutes without Marcus Smart on the court this season, Tatum is averaging 1.44 FanDuel points per minute a 0.19 bump than with Smart on the floor. At a 1.44 clip, Tatum would need to play 33.0 minutes in order to achieve a 5.0 value figure -- our model has him projected for 35.3 minutes tonight.

In order to be able to get a lineup full of studs, you'll need to save salary somewhere -- might I suggest Eric Paschall ($3,500). This season, with James Wiseman and Marquese Chriss off the court, Paschall has a 26.5% usage rate (second-best on the team) to go with a 1.04 FanDuel-points-per-minute average. At a minimum salary, Paschall would only need to play 16.8 minutes to reach our baseline value. Paschall has recorded more than 18 FanDuel points seven times this season, and each of those instances came in games that Wiseman played fewer than 23 minutes.

Other Options: The Warriors rank sixth-worst against power forwards and eighth-worst against centers in 2020-21, which means Daniel Theis ($4,500) should be on our radars. Theis is the ultimate high-ceiling low floor player, with his game log over his last seven reading like this: 14.9 FanDuel points, 37.5, 13.9, 37.7, 44.1, 5.2, and 27.9. Theis has actually managed at least 22 fantasy points in six of his last nine games with Tatum in the lineup, so using both of them together isn't necessarily a bad idea. Our model's top-two projected values at the position are Chris Boucher ($5,200) and Davis Bertans ($4,300). Both players are highly volatile producers, so too much exposure is not recommended.

Honorable Mentions: Memphis ranks as the fifth-toughest team against power forwards, which is why I'd much prefer Tatum to Sabonis. Sabonis also doesn't reach his ceiling nearly as often as Tatum. Brandon Clarke ($6,400) is averaging 34.4 FanDuel points over his last seven games, and with Jonas Valanciunas, he is certainly rosterable tonight.

Center

Core Play: Our model's top-projected value at center is Gorgui Dieng ($5,300). In his last two games, Dieng has racked up 33.9 and 33.3 FanDuel points in Valanciunas' stead. At his salary, he would only need 26.5 to accrue a 5.0 value figure. numberFire's algorithm has Dieng projected for 30.2 tonight.

Studs to Consider: Nikola Vucevic ($8,800) sees his usage rate go up by 3.9% with Aaron Gordon off the court this season. Vuce is our model's top-projected scorer by 4.7 fantasy points on tonight's slate. In addition to Dieng and Vucevic, our model projects both Myles Turner ($7,400) and Enes Kanter ($7,000) to surpass 5X value. The two will be facing teams that rank third- and fourth-worst against centers this season. Turner has racked up at least 39.6 FanDuel points in 7 of his last 11. Meanwhile, Kanter has had three outings with more than 37 in his last seven games.

Small Forward

Key Stud: It's tough to name anyone at small forward as a "core play," though Kawhi Leonard ($9,600) is pretty darn close. Kawhi's been in the high 50s (in terms of FanDuel points) a number of times this season, so his upside is certainly not lacking. Kawhi has faced a bottom-10 defense (in net rating) six times this season, and he has exceeded 50 fantasy points in five of those matchups. Getting him at a salary under five-figures is a nice bonus.

Value Options: When adjusted for competition, the Grizzlies rank sixth-worst against small forwards, which brings Justin Holiday ($4,600) and Doug McDermott ($4,100) into play. Holiday's had 19 FanDuel points or fewer in 7 of his last 14 games, but he has also posted 27 or more five times during that stretch. Meanwhile, McDermott has posted fewer than 19 in three of his last four, but he has also had more than 23 in 6 of his last nine. Lamb's presence lowers both the floor and ceiling for Holiday and McDermott, but if you need to save salary, you can throw a dart at one of them. Speaking of dart throws, Nassir Little ($3,500) is a complete prayer at the minimum salary. Little dropped 46.7 fantasy points in last night's blowout, though it's worth noting that 18.5 of those points came in the first half. It's plausible that he earned himself more playing time with that performance.

Honorable Mentions: Given all of Orlando's inactives, Evan Fournier ($6,400) is rosterable despite back-to-back duds. With Gordon, Fultz, and MCW off the court this season, Fournier has seen a 2.2% increase in usage while averaging an additional 0.19 fantasy points per minute. If Powell and Anunoby are both out, Pascal Siakam ($8,300) is in the "key stud" conversation. Siakam amassed 56.5 fantasy points on Sunday with those two out. Finally, both Jerami Grant ($6,800) and Kelly Oubre ($5,500) have tough matchups, but it doesn't mean they can't return value. After posting more than 30 fantasy points in 17 straight games, Grant has failed to reach that number in each of his last two. Still, this is a player who's averaging 37.2 FanDuel points per game this season. As for Oubre, he needs 27.5 fantasy points for 5X, and that's a number he's trumped in 7 of his last 10.