FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Monday 2/1/21

The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.

Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's 10-game slate, which locks at 7:30 PM Eastern.

Slate Overview

Via Brandon Gdula's matchup sheet, this table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Point Guard

Key Studs: For as long as C.J. McCollum is out, Damian Lillard ($10,000) will remain a core stud for me -- even on a loaded slate. Tonight, Lillard will be playing in a game with a 235.0 total -- highest on the slate -- against a Milwaukee Bucks that plays at the fourth-fastest pace and that is surrendering a generous 112.7 points per game this season. In the nine games McCollum has missed over the last two seasons, Lillard has posted an average of 56.4 FanDuel points per game, while never dipping below 42.0. Our model projects Dame to be the fifth-best value at the position. Another stud to consider is Ja Morant ($7,800). According to numberFire's DvP tool, Morant is facing a San Antonio Spurs team that's allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.

Core Plays: As I mentioned in the above paragraph, Lillard is a core play. At the position, we also have the two Balls locked and loaded (phrasing?) -- LaMelo Ball ($6,300) against the Miami Heat and Lonzo Ball ($5,700) versus the Sacramento Kings. Miami is ceding the 10th-most fantasy points to the position, and LaMelo has posted 34.7 and 57.5 FanDuel points in his last two outings. It's generally tough to find that kind of slate-winning upside at that salary, but the rookie's floor can also be a lineup-killer. As for Lonzo, he's averaging 34.2 fantasy points over his last four, and he would only need 28.5 to achieve our baseline value figure of 5.0. Luckily, he'll face a Kings' defense that's third-most-generous to the point guard position. Meanwhile, Darius Garland ($5,300) gets the best matchup of the day against a Minnesota Timberwolves defense that ranks second-worst against the position this season. Garland is our model's second-best projected value at point.

Other options: Dejounte Murray ($6,900) gets a solid matchup and has eclipsed 34 FanDuel points in seven of his last eight. Lonzo's backcourt mate, Eric Bledsoe ($5,600), has averaged 32.4 fantasy points over his last four and is also worthy of consideration.

Value options: With Grayson Allen out on Saturday, De'Anthony Melton ($4,600) posted 35 FanDuel points in 32.2 minutes of action. Allen has already been ruled out for today, and our models project Melton to be the best value at the position. For a minimum salary, we can also look to Anfernee Simons ($3,500). In his last four games, Simons is averaging 27 minutes of on-court time to go with 21.6 fantasy points -- that's better minutes and production than what you can usually find at the minimum.

Shooting Guard

Core Plays: Devonte' Graham ($5,500) is one of our model's top-projected values at shooting guard, as we have him going for 31.5 FanDuel points in 34.3 minutes of action. Terry Rozier is questionable tonight after missing the second half of Saturday's game with an ankle injury, and both LaMelo and Graham stand to benefit if Rozier were to be inactive tonight. Tyrese Haliburton ($5,400) is averaging 31.5 FanDuel points over his last four outings while seeing more than 30 minutes in each contest. Tonight, the rookie faces a Sacramento defense that's third-worst against the position. Finally, Immanuel Quickley ($5,200) squares off against a Chicago Bulls squad that's allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to shooting guards in 2020-21. Quickley has played at least 24 in three of his last four outings, and he's exceeded 33 FanDuel points in each of those three efforts.

High-Salaried Options: In the matchup between the Houston Rockets and the Oklahoma City Thunder, an argument can be made for some exposure to either Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,300) or Victor Oladipo ($8,200). SGA has topped 48 FanDuel points in four of his last seven games, while Oladipo has eclipsed 46 in three of his six games with Houston. However, the only players with salaries above $7,000 that our model has returning value figures of 5.0 or better are DeMar DeRozan ($7,100) and D'Angelo Russell ($7,100). DeRozan's coming off a game in which he managed just 6.7 FanDuel points, so you can be sure his rostership will be depressed for this one. The matchup with Memphis is a tough one, so this is a pure contrarian play. Russell hasn't done much in his two games back, as he's seen a chunk of his usage go to the first overall pick, Anthony Edwards. Nevertheless, our model has Russell projected for 38.3 tonight.

Value Options: The Bucks are facing a Portland Trail Blazers team that ranks second-worst against shooting guards this season, which brings both Donte DiVincenzo ($4,000) and Pat Connaughton ($3,800) into play. DiVincenzo has only totaled 20 or more fantasy points once in his last seven games, though he has managed more than 23 FanDuel points nine times this campaign. While he hasn't showcased the same consistent upside as his teammate, Connaughton has recorded 24.9 and 28.2 fantasy points in his last two. At tonight's salary, he would only need to produce 19 to return a value figure of 5.0. With De'Andre Hunter out, the biggest boost should go to Cam Reddish ($4,600). With Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic off the court this season, Reddish averages an additional 0.20 FanDuel points per minute, according to RotoGrinders. Finally, Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($4,700) faces a Kings' defense that's dead last against shooting guards, and he is fresh off posting 43 FanDuel points on Saturday.

Small Forward

Core Plays: With Gary Harris out and P.J. Dozier likely joining him, Will Barton ($4,000) could be in a position to be one of the best values on the slate. Yesterday, with Dozier out and Harris getting injured in the first quarter, Barton posted 33.6 FanDuel points in 37.5 minutes of action. This season, in the eight in which he's seen more than 30 minutes of playing time, Barton is averaging 29.8 fantasy points per game. Our model's top-projected value at the position is Barton's teammate, Michael Porter Jr. ($5,600). That said, I'd prefer to save the $1,600 and roll with Barton. In the same game, we have two studs -- Jimmy Butler ($8,700) and Gordon Hayward ($7,600) -- who are both in the core play discussion. Butler dropped 50.4 FanDuel points in his return to action on Saturday -- it was the fourth time in six healthy games that he'd exceeded 48. Tonight, he'll face a Charlotte Hornets team that's giving up the third-most fantasy points to small forwards. Miami's been even worse against the position, ranking second-to-last, though they've been without Butler for most of the season. Still, this is a juicy matchup, and Hayward has a friendly salary for a player who regularly scored in the 40s or higher. In fact, Hayward has topped 40 in 10 of his 19 outings this season. That said, given Miami's 112.3 implied total, I'd lean toward Butler in most of my builds.

Value Options: The Thunder surrender more fantasy points to small forwards than any other team, which brings Jae'Sean Tate ($3,900) into play. Tate has failed to reach double-digit fantasy points in two of his last four games, so his floor is quite low, but he has also topped 27 FanDuel points in four of his last nine outings. David Nwaba likely being inactive certainly doesn't hurt Tate's outlook. numberFire's algorithm has each of Josh Okogie ($3,500), Dorian Finney-Smith ($3,900), and Rudy Gay ($3,900) returning value figures better than 5.4.

Power Forward

Key Studs: The Deer have an implied total that's four points higher than any other team on the slate, which makes passing on Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,600) all the more risky. Giannis has eclipsed 60 FanDuel points in three straight, and he's managed at least 59 in five of his last nine. He should have no trouble dismantling a Blazers team that's allowing north of 115 points per game this season. Our model projects the two-time MVP to outscore the next-highest scorer on this slate ((Luka Doncic) by 4.4 FanDuel points. Julius Randle ($8,800) has a matchup with a Bulls defense that's ceding the seventh-most fantasy points to power forwards. Randle doesn't have slate-breaking upside due to his limited ceiling, but he is one of the safer options given his rock-solid floor.

Core Plays: Even at the highest salary on the slate, Giannis has to be considered a core play. Our model's top projected value at power forward is Kristaps Porzingis ($7,000). Porzingis would need 35 FanDuel points to achieve our baseline value, and he's trumped that number four times in his last seven games. The 25-year-old should be well-rested, having not played since Friday. Right behind Porzingis in terms of projected value is Darius Bazley ($5,100). numberFire's algorithm has Bazley going for 28.1 FanDuel points in 33.1 minutes of action.

Value Options: JaMychal Green ($4,200) and Paul Millsap ($4,100) could both see an uptick in volume with Harris and Dozier out, and they're facing a Detroit Pistons unit that's allowing the second-most FanDuel points to power forwards this season. Green's garnered more than 22 fantasy points in half of his outings this season, including outputs of 31.5 and 34.1 in two of his last four games. Meanwhile, Millsap's had 21 or more fantasy points in 10 of his 20 games in 2020-21, and he would need 20.5 for a value figure of 5.0 tonight.

Center

Key Studs: Nikola Jokic ($10,900) has produced more than 55 FanDuel points in 8 of his last 10 efforts, including 6 outings of at least 60.8. Denver has the fifth-highest implied total tonight, and the matchup against Detroit isn't exactly tough. Jokic is a core play if you can afford him. If you can't quite get up to the Serbian, you can also look to Andre Drummond ($8,800) who will size up a Wolves defense that's allowing the most fantasy points to opposing centers this season. Drummond dropped 60.4 fantasy points on Minnesota last night, and he should have similar upside tonight.

Value Options: Al Horford ($6,300) has posted 49.2 and 38.2 FanDuel points in the two games since he's returned to the lineup for Oklahoma City, and tonight he'll go up against a Houston team allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to the position. If you need to save even more, Gorgui Dieng ($4,600) averages 1.18 FanDuel points per minute with Jonas Valanciunas off the court this season. At that rate, he would only need to see 19.5 minutes of action in order to return our baseline value figure.