NBA Betting Guide for 1/28/21: Which of the 4 Games Are Best to Bet?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games virtually every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets
There's smart money indication on the Houston Rockets to cover the spread against the Portland Trail Blazers, so much so that the spread has already climbed from Rockets -2.5 to Rockets -4.5. Via oddsFire, we can see that 51% of the bets but 73% of the money has come on the Rockets to cover the spread.
So now that it's at -4.5, is there still value? Yeah, some, according to numberFire's algorithm. We view the Rockets -4.5 as 54.6% likely, a one-star recommendation out of five. That's an expected return of just 4.20%, but it's worth noting that even at 4.5, there's some value. Just keep an eye on that situation.
numberFire's algorithm prefers the over at 230.0 points, considering it a three-star wager out of five. That comes out as 67.6% likely to hit, and our median projected score totals 238.8 points.
Los Angeles Clippers at Miami Heat
numberFire is big on the Los Angeles Clippers here, rating the Clippers +4.0 as a five-star wager out of five and their moneyline (+148) as a four-star wager out of five. We're projecting the Clippers to win this game 110.8 to 107.0 and to win it 63.9% of the time. That probability implies a moneyline of -177, yet we can see that it's actually the Miami Heat who are favored at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Now, you're probably curious because the Clippers will be without Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Patrick Beverley. With those three on the court, the Clippers have a net rating of +21.4 points; without them, they are a -9.0. But the Heat are also thin and will be without Jimmy Butler and others and are a -4.7 without Butler and Tyler Herro.
Given everything, the betting trends are pretty split all across the board in this game, so we can default to trusting the algorithm's read on it and back the Clippers +4.0.
Los Angeles Lakers at Detroit Pistons
I just wanted to touch on all four games because there are only four. numberFire isn't showing too much value in this game, however.
The under at 214.5 would be the place that makes most sense. numberFire's algorithm views the under as 55.1% likely for an estimated return of 5.2%. The heavy majority of bets (81%) and money (71%) are on the over, but that does mean there's a slight discrepancy in the under's tickets (19%) and money (29%).
I'd say it's a stay-away, but that is the best value in this game.
Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns
This game is a lot better from a value standpoint. There's agreement on a few things here.
The betting trends show more money (58%) than tickets (44%) on the Phoenix Suns to cover the spread (-2.5 after opening at -1.5). numberFire views the Suns -1.5 as a full-on five-star wager. We project them to demolish the Golden State Warriors by roughly 9.5 points and to cover the 2.5-point spread 71.6% of the time.
This heavy projection puts their moneyline (-134) in play as a five-star recommendation, as well. numberFire is projecting the Suns to win this game 81.7% of the time, implying a moneyline of -446. The Suns' estimated net rating of +1.4 is 2.7 points better than the Warriors' -1.3, so that's right in line with the spread, assuming it's a 100-possession game. Their average pace should get them each 103.0 possessions.
