3 NBA FanDuel Tournament Plays to Target on 1/27/21

"One cannot be betrayed if one has no people."

How many times have we been burned by the chalk in NBA DFS?

When it's time to start building GPP lineups, especially for NBA tournaments, the fundamental choice to make is whether or not to buy into the chalk plays of the slate. More than any other sport, the popular plays in the NBA are popular for a reason. Where we often get into trouble in tournaments, however, is when we begin to blindly trust a slate's chalk.

This regular piece will focus on tournaments looking through the lens of the projected chalk plays -- the usual suspects -- of that night's games. In an attempt to understand the context of the slate, this column will look at lower-owned plays that help you gain ownership leverage against the competition.

Wednesday's slate has a massive 12 games (even with one postponement), so it won't be too difficult to differentiate off of the chalk plays of the night. Let's dig in to see where we can pivot.

Guard

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,500) - In terms of chalky plays tonight, Bradley Beal is essentially going to be playing one-on-five against the New Orleans Pelicans, assuming Russell Westbrook sits on the second night of a back-to-back. That means if you are paying way up for a shooting guard, your choices are James Harden (who has settled into a 38 FanDuel point average with the Nets -- not good enough at his salary) or you have SGA.

Gilgeous-Alexander has been playing like a lot like a GPP option lately -- three of his past seven games under 32 FanDuel points and three of them over 49. I'm banking on SGA hitting value tonight in a matchup with the Phoenix Suns even though the Oklahoma City Thunder have the lowest implied total on the slate. It's simply a matter of usage.

On the season, SGA averages a strong 26% usage rate -- slightly higher than guys like Jamal Murray and Malcolm Brogdon. But in his last four games, it has been closer to 29% -- more in the De'Aaron Fox or Kyrie Irving range. Over that span, his offensive rating has improved from 109 to over 111 as he becomes even more of a featured piece of the offense.

Without Devin Booker to chase around tonight, I fully expect SGA to pay off his salary in an overlooked game environment.

Forward

Brandon Ingram ($7,500) - Ingram is the GameStop of NBA DFS players right now -- somewhere you need to get in on the cheap and turn a profit on his salary before anyone catches up to exactly what is happening.

Earlier this month, Ingram's salary was at $9,000. After a string of six performances below 40 FanDuel points, he has seen a 17% salary reduction to where we are today. It's simply too low. Ingram still carries a 28% usage rate on the season (second to only LeBron James and Kevin Durant at the position tonight) and is averaging his highest field goal attempts, field goal makes, and assist rate of his career.

The Washington Wizards don't stand much of a chance of stopping him tonight and not just because they are severely undermanned. The Wizards allow the most actual points to the small forward position this year (25.44 per game), run at the fastest pace in the league (105.5), and have the third-worst defensive rating on the season (113.8).

Center

Clint Capela ($10,500) - This is a crazy world we are living in if we are actually considering playing Clint Capela at a salary of $10,500, but he has done nothing to prove we should overlook his most recent stretch of games.

In his last five contests, Capela is averaging 20.0 points, 18.6 rebounds, and 4.8 blocks per game for 60.8 FanDuel points per game. If you just take his minimum numbers for each game during that stretch (13 points, 15 rebounds, and 2 blocks), only one other player (Dwight Howard in 2011 and 2018, according to Pro Basketball Reference) has put up at least those stats in more games in a row since the 2001 season. Capela is blowing away his other fantasy seasons this year and now has the ideal game environment for more.

His reward tonight is perhaps the best possible matchup for centers as he lines up against the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets allow the second-most FanDuel points to the center position and -- for all their offensive firepower -- can't seem to stop anyone on defense. They are 20th in defensive rating, give up the sixth-most offensive rebounds, and allow the third-most points in the paint this season. Considering Capela scores over 85% of his points in that area, I would say this is a dream matchup tonight -- even at the high salary which will drive many away.