NBA

3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 1/25/21

Vaughn Dalzell  —  @VaughnDalzell Jan 25th, 2021
Which of LeBron James' props should we target versus the Cavs? Where else can we find betting value tonight?

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at Online Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Zach LaVine Over 25.5 Points (+100)

Zach LaVine and the Chicago Bulls are again underdogs, but this time it's against the Boston Celtics in an exciting matchup. Jayson Tatum will return for Boston, giving this matchup some star-studded power. LaVine has been on a heater, scoring 25 or more points in 7 of his last 10. He's attempted 19 or more field goals in 6 of those 10 contests and played 35 or more minutes in 9 of them.

Our model projects LaVine to score 25.0 points even, but he's averaging 27.5 points per game at home. LaVine has scored 30, 35, and 42 points in the last three meetings with the Celtics, and on a day of rest, he's averaged 27.9 points per game this season. He's led the Bulls in scoring 12-of-16 times this season, and our model predicts that to happen once again.

LeBron James Over 24.5 Points (-120)

LeBron James gets a rematch against his former team, something that doesn't happen too often. Since 2018-19, LeBron has faced the Cleveland Cavaliers twice and scored 31 and 32 points in both meetings. In 15 career meetings with Cleveland, LeBron averages 28.1 points per game. On the road this season, LeBron is averaging 24.3 points per game, 1.3 more than at home.

LeBron has also been taking it up a notch from beyond the arc this season. LeBron has made two or more three-pointers in five of his last six games. He made a season-high six triples two games ago versus Milwaukee but followed that up with zero versus Chicago on only two attempts, a season-low.

The Los Angeles Lakers are -10.5 point favorites entering this game, so if a blowout happens, LeBron could see at least 25 points in this matchup. LeBron's projected to score 25.5 points in 37.3 minutes versus Cleveland. When LeBron plays 35 or more minutes, he has scored 25 or more in five-of-six games this season.

Damian Lillard Under 33.5 Points (-120)

Damian Lillard has been taking over the reins for the Portland Trail Blazers, as C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic are out. Over the last three games, Lillard has scored 35, 36, and 39 points. On no days of rest like this situation, Lillard is averaging 36.5 points per game this year through only two outings. Last season, Lillard averaged 30.9 points in the 10 back-to-backs.

That said, the Oklahoma City Thunder are one of the best teams in the league this season when defending point guards. OKC allows the fifth-fewest points per game to opposing point guards (20.61) and the 11th-fewest made three-pointers per game (2.59).

I lean towards Lillard's under versus the Thunder for a few reasons outside of their defense versus point guards. He scored 26, 27, and 34 points in his last three meetings, all games determined by double-digits. Lillard has a usage rate of 35.4% in the previous five games, and after playing 35 or more minutes in five straight, I expect Lillard to see his minutes restricted, especially if Portland handles its business.