3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 1/21/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
LeBron James Over 25.5 Points (-108)
Tonight's marquee matchup is between the Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Lakers, with all eyes on three potential MVP candidates. LeBron James leads the Lakers, who are winners of five of the last six games, losing Monday's matchup with the Golden State Warriors. In that one, LeBron had only his third game with fewer than 20 points, and so far this season, he has bounced back in each of his two previous outings following such a game, scoring 29 and 26 points in the follow-up games. LeBron has scored 26 or more points in eight out of 15 games this season.
Our model projects the King at 25.4 points tonight. But given the spirit of the competition versus Giannis Antetokounmpo and an over/under of 229.0, we can expect a plethora of shot attempts from LeBron. The Bucks allow the second-most made three-pointers to small forwards per game (3.55), and James has attempted at least seven triples in each of his last three matchups with Milwaukee. In his last three meetings with the Bucks, LeBron has put up 21, 31 and 37 points. I expect an aggressive James for this matchup.
Julius Randle, Over 33.5 Points and Rebounds (-113)
Julius Randle has been a beast this season, averaging 22.8 points per game and scoring 20 or more in seven of his last nine, including four in a row. He is coming off 20- and 21-point efforts versus the Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic, respectively. Randle has rebounded well in the past two games, increasing his average to 11.0 rebounds per game for the season (8th) with 12 and 17 boards in those two.
Randle has gone over 33.5 combined points and rebounds in four straight and in nine of 15 games on the season. The Warriors allow the 11th-most points per game to power forwards (21.65) and the second-most rebounds per game (12.74) to the position. Randle has also hit two three-pointers in four straight games and attempted a season-high 13 free-throw attempts in his last outing.
Randle may have to make a living at the free-throw line if Draymond Green draws the defensive battle, and if that matchup worries you, Randle's over 11.5 rebounds (-104) looks good as an alternative.
Zion Williamson, Over 22.5 Points (-110)
Zion Williamson dropped a season-high 32 points last time out and has recorded back-to-back 30-point games for the first time in his career. That is worth noting and backing as Williamson is on a hot streak, making 47% or more of his field-goal attempts in nine straight games. Zion has scored 20 or more points in seven straight and in nine-of-12 outings this season, but he's gone over 22.5 in just six of them.
His standard points prop line started readjusting from 20.5 to 21.5, and it's now 22.5, so this could be the new norm for him. It is only going to increase as he gets better and his field-goal attempts increase. In his last six games, Zion has attempted 15 or more shots in each, including 19 or more in three of his previous four. Zion went over 50% from the floor in nine of 12 games, and the Utah Jazz allowed him to go 14 of 19 (73.7%) for 32 points in 35 minutes in his last game.
Williamson gets the same Jazz again tonight, and he has the ability to post another big scoring night.