NBA

Daily Fantasy NBA Adjusted Matchups and Pace for 1/18/21

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 Jan 18th, 2021
Check out each team's offensive and defensive ratings, pace, and FanDuel points allowed -- all adjusted for opponent.

Matchups matter in daily fantasy NBA, and it can be hard to keep everything -- pace, defensive rating, individual matchups -- tidy, so I wanted to fix that by dumping all the data into one place for ease of use.

So every day, I'll be posting some information on each game for the NBA main slate.

That'll include things like opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings for each team. I'll also look at opponent-adjusted paces based on the team-level as well.

And to go a step further, I'll provide defense-versus-position (DvP) values based on FanDuel points per minute allowed to each position. The way that'll work is to adjust on the individual level. This means looking at each player's total fantasy points per minute mark to figure out an expected output in a game and comparing it to what actually happened. Holding a superstar and a role player to the same FanDuel-point-per-minute mark isn't quite the same. These values will adjust for expectation.

Because these stats don't stabilize that quickly, I'll blend 2019-20 and 2020-21 stats.

Adjusted Offensive Rating and Opponent Defensive Rating

This table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Team Opp Over/
Under 		Spread Implied
Total 		Adj.
Offensive
Rating 		Rank Opp Adj.
Defensive
Rating 		Rank
MIL BKN 237.5 -2.0 119.75 114.6 5 109.2 13
ATL MIN 227.5 -8.0 117.75 103.0 25 112.4 26
BKN MIL 237.5 2.0 117.75 107.6 20 103.2 1
LAL GS 225.5 -8.0 116.75 114.3 7 112.3 25
CHI HOU 226.5 -2.0 114.25 103.0 26 109.0 11
PHX MEM 223.0 -3.0 113.0 113.1 10 108.6 10
SA POR 224.0 -1.5 112.75 112.7 11 113.6 29
HOU CHI 226.5 2.0 112.25 111.7 12 110.5 16
MIA DET 218.5 -5.5 112.0 114.6 6 112.3 24
TOR DAL 219.5 -3.5 111.50 111.4 13 111.2 18
POR SA 224.0 1.5 111.25 114.3 9 111.7 21
MEM PHX 223.0 3.0 110.0 105.5 22 110.3 15
MIN ATL 227.5 8.0 109.75 103.7 24 112.1 23
GS LAL 225.5 8.0 108.75 99.6 30 105.5 3
DAL TOR 219.5 3.5 108.0 119.2 1 104.7 2
DET MIA 218.5 5.5 106.50 105.8 21 109.0 12
ORL NY 206.5 -1.5 104.0 105.1 23 111.6 19
NY ORL 206.5 1.5 102.50 100.5 29 108.1 8

Adjusted Pace and Expected Pace, Offensive Rating, and Points

This table shows each team's adjusted pace and adjusted opponent pace to find expected pace. Expected offensive rating combines each team's adjusted offensive rating and the opponent's adjusted defensive rating. Combining expected pace and expected offensive rating gives us expected points.

Teams are sorted by fastest adjusted pace. Remember, these still bake in 2019-20 stats.

Team Opp Adj.
Pace 		Rank Opp
Adj.
Pace 		Rank Expected
Pace 		Expected
Offensive
Rating 		Expected
Points
MIL BKN 105.0 1 102.8 8 107.0 111.7 119.5
ATL MIN 104.2 3 103.9 5 107.3 109.0 116.9
MIN ATL 103.9 5 104.2 3 107.3 109.0 117.0
HOU CHI 103.6 6 100.9 13 103.7 111.4 115.5
MEM PHX 103.3 7 100.8 14 103.3 108.2 111.8
BKN MIL 102.8 8 105.0 1 107.0 102.1 109.2
POR SA 101.8 9 100.6 16 101.7 114.0 115.9
GS LAL 101.5 10 100.7 15 101.4 100.4 101.8
TOR DAL 101.1 11 100.1 17 100.5 112.1 112.6
CHI HOU 100.9 13 103.6 6 103.7 105.5 109.4
PHX MEM 100.8 14 103.3 7 103.3 110.3 114.0
LAL GS 100.7 15 101.5 10 101.4 114.6 116.2
SA POR 100.6 16 101.8 9 101.7 115.1 117.0
DAL TOR 100.1 17 101.1 11 100.5 109.5 110.0
NY ORL 99.1 24 99.1 25 97.4 103.4 100.7
ORL NY 99.1 25 99.1 24 97.4 109.2 106.4
DET MIA 98.4 26 98.3 28 96.0 107.0 102.7
MIA DET 98.3 28 98.4 26 96.0 114.8 110.1

Player-Level Adjusted FanDuel Points per Minute by Position

This table is presented to be viewed from an offensive perspective (i.e. the defensive marks reflect the offense's opponent).

The matchups shown are their opponent's defensive FanDuel-point-per-minute mark adjusted for individual opponents faced. League-wide ranks are in parenthesis. Because outliers are the primary matchups worth targeting and avoiding, green cells indicate top-five easiest matchups for the offense, and red indicate bottom-five.

Teams are sorted alphabetically for ease of use.

Offense Defense PG SG SF PF C
ATL MIN 0.99 (28) 0.92 (28) 0.89 (24) 1 (25) 1.17 (25)
BKN MIL 0.93 (12) 0.86 (10) 0.83 (7) 0.95 (14) 1.12 (18)
CHI HOU 0.97 (20) 0.87 (15) 0.94 (29) 0.99 (21) 1.12 (19)
DAL TOR 0.93 (13) 0.87 (16) 0.89 (22) 0.96 (15) 1.02 (4)
DET MIA 0.90 (4) 0.85 (6) 0.86 (12) 0.93 (9) 1.02 (5)
GS LAL 0.95 (14) 0.86 (8) 0.81 (3) 0.86 (1) 0.98 (2)
HOU CHI 0.90 (3) 0.87 (14) 0.87 (16) 1.06 (29) 1.18 (27)
LAL GS 0.97 (22) 0.94 (30) 0.88 (20) 0.99 (24) 1.15 (22)
MEM PHX 0.92 (6) 0.9 (23) 0.83 (6) 0.95 (12) 1.15 (24)
MIA DET 0.96 (17) 0.86 (11) 0.83 (10) 1.02 (26) 1.14 (21)
MIL BKN 0.97 (19) 0.88 (19) 0.87 (14) 0.96 (16) 1.18 (28)
MIN ATL 0.99 (27) 0.94 (29) 0.95 (30) 1.03 (27) 1.18 (26)
NY ORL 0.96 (18) 0.88 (18) 0.87 (17) 0.98 (18) 0.98 (1)
ORL NY 0.96 (16) 0.86 (7) 0.86 (13) 0.93 (10) 1.1 (12)
PHX MEM 0.97 (21) 0.9 (24) 0.87 (15) 0.99 (22) 1.13 (20)
POR SA 0.98 (24) 0.85 (4) 0.90 (26) 0.99 (23) 1.07 (8)
SA POR 0.97 (23) 0.89 (21) 0.88 (18) 1.07 (30) 1.11 (14)
TOR DAL 0.88 (2) 0.86 (12) 0.94 (28) 0.95 (13) 1.09 (11)