NBA Betting Guide for 1/14/21: Going Hard at Miami and Philadelphia

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games virtually every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)

Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers

This is a green-light special for numberFire's algorithm, meaning that all three overall bets: the over/under, the spread, and the moneyline are at least three-star recommendations (out of five), per our algorithm.

Let's start with the over/under (222.5). I've talked a lot about unders to start the year, but 54.2% of games have hit the under on the closing total at FanDuel Sportsbook so far. numberFire pegs the under as 69.5% likely to occur, and there's some discrepancy between the money and tickets. Yes, 71% of the tickets are on the over, but only 57% of the money is, meaning there's a 14-point differential in money on the under (43%) and the tickets (29%).

The Miami Heat +10.5 is getting a four-star recommendation, and around 75% of the tickets and money are on the Heat to cover that number. Our median projection for this game is 108.6-104.7, a differential of just 3.9 points.

And then finally, the moneyline. The Philadelphia 76ers are 64.5% likely to win this one, leaving a 35.5% probability that the Heat win. Those odds suggest their moneyline should be +182, but they're listed at +450 (which suggest they're only 18.2% likely to win).

Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs

One of the sharp money spots (simply looking at where there is significantly more money than tickets on a particular wager) is on the Houston Rockets to cover the spread of 7.0 points against the San Antonio Spurs. numberFire's algorithm also loves that bet, rating it as a four-star bet out of five.

Since the start of last season, the Rockets have a 105.2 offensive rating and a 107.3 defensive rating without James Harden and Russell Westbrook on the court. That's a net rating of just -2.1. With at least two of John Wall, Christian Wood, and DeMarcus Cousins on the floor, their offensive rating is 107.4 with a 113.6 defensive rating (so a net of -6.2). Still, there are reasons not to abandon the Rockets entirely.

Further, this season, the Spurs' estimated net rating is just -2.0, and they are just 19th in our power rankings. We shouldn't totally fear the Spurs by any means.

Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets

Here's another spot where there's some sharp money indications backed by our algorithm. The under in this game (225.0) has received 27% of the bets but a whopping 61% of the money. That's the largest discrepancy across any bet on any game thus far.

numberFire's algorithm rates the under as a two-star bet out of five and views it 60.8% likely to occur, for an expected return of 16.1%. Of the 25 strongest predictions -- the games that most closely match this one historically -- 22 wound up hitting the posted under. The median total in numberFire's projections is 116.3-102.9, so a total of 219.2. My model projected a total of 217.1.

Though the Denver Nuggets are the second-best estimated offense in the NBA (113.6 points per 100 possessions), the Golden State Warriors are just 24th (104.4).