FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Tuesday 1/12/21

If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's five-game slate, which locks at 7:30 PM Eastern Time. (Note: the matchup between the Miami Heat and the Philadelphia 76ers is not on FanDuel's main slate tonight.)

Point Guard

Our model does not project value to be easy to come by at the point guard position, as it only has Dejounte Murray ($7,500) reaching 5x (or 5.0 fantasy points for every $1,000 in salary). With DeMar DeRozan and Derrick White out for this matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder, Murray should see a heavier-than-usual workload. In 114.7 minutes with those two off the court, Murray has had a 28.5% usage rate to go with a 1.14 FanDuel-point-per-minute average. He should be a good bet to return value. Murray's teammate, Patty Mills ($4,300), is also worthy of consideration. Mills has averaged 24.9 FanDuel points over his last four games, and he should also benefit from DeRozan's absence. Patty would only need 21.5 fantasy points to achieve desired value at his salary.

In that same matchup, George Hill ($4,500) could be a decent value play. According to Brandon Gdula's matchup sheet, the San Antonio Spurs rank as the fifth-worst matchup for point guards. Hill has recorded at least 23.5 fantasy points in five of his eight games this season, and Hill would only need 22.5 for 5x.

The Golden State Warriors rank eighth-worst against point guard when adjusted for competition, which means Malcolm Brogdon ($8,400) is very much in play. Brogdon has averaged an impressive 50 FanDuel points over his last five, and he only needs 42 to achieve adequate value. The Indiana Pacers rank as the eighth-toughest matchup against the position, so I'd certainly prefer Brogdon to Stephen Curry ($9,600).

Dennis Schroder ($5,500) is another play we should have some exposure to. Schroder has surpassed 27 fantasy points six times this season, and he needs 27.5 for 5x. A matchup with the high-paced Houston Rockets certainly doesn't hurt.

Shooting Guard

With Kyrie Irving not expected to return this week, the Caris LeVert ($7,900) should continue. In 226.5 minutes without Kyrie and Spencer Dinwiddie on the floor, LeVert has a usage rate of 33.9% to go along with averaging 1.33 FanDuel points per minute. LeVert has already had four games with more than 45 fantasy points this season, so his ceiling is not something we need to worry about.

Eric Gordon, John Wall, and Danuel House Jr. are all questionable for Houston. If at least two of those are unable to go, we should consider David Nwaba ($3,600) a top value play. Nwaba has eclipsed 21 FanDuel points in three of his seven games, and that would be great value at his salary.

James Harden ($10,400) comes in at his lowest salary since January of last season. Harden hasn't topped 43.6 Fanduel points in any of his last four, but we're all well aware of what his ceiling is. If Wall is unable to suit up, Harden becomes the no-brainer play of the slate. Either way, he is worth some exposure. At exactly half of Harden's salary, Lonnie Walker ($5,200) should be highly-rostered due to DeRozan's absence. It also doesn't hurt that Walker is fresh off a season-high 38.6-FanDuel-point performance. If Collin Sexton is a late scratch for the Cleveland Cavaliers once again, Damyean Dotson ($5,200) should garner consideration against a Utah Jazz defense that's surrendered the second-most fantasy points to shooting guards, according to FantasyPros. In three games sans Sexton, Dotson has posted 28.4, 41.4, and 31.6 fantasy points -- that'll play.
(Update: Sexton is officially out tonight.)

Small Forward

At small forward tonight, you'll get the choice between ponying up for Kevin Durant ($10,100) or LeBron James ($9,900). In limited minutes with Kyrie off the court this season, Durant is averaging 1.49 fantasy points per minute on a 36.7% usage rate. KD has only recorded fewer than 42.3 FanDuel points once this season, suggesting his floor is quite high. Meanwhile, it's a rarity that we're able to roster LeBron for under $10,000, but here we are. LBJ has "only" garnered 42.9 and 40.9 fantasy points in his last two, but he has recorded at least 48 in each of the prior six games. A matchup with the Rockets, who rank as the second-worst team against small forwards when adjusted for competition, is certainly one we should target. Our model projects LeBron to be the second-best value at the position.

On the value side, Rudy Gay ($4,500) has totaled at least 22.2 fantasy points in five of his last eight, and he should see a bump in volume with DeRozan out. Gay's teammate, Keldon Johnson ($6,600), has topped 33 fantasy points five times this season. Both San Antonio players could outperform their salary.

Justin Holiday ($4,500) doesn't quite have Gay's ceiling, though he too is in play. Holiday has amassed 22.2 or more FanDuel points in five of his last seven. Should Sexton be inactive, Cedi Osman ($5,100) would be a strong play. Osman has accrued at least 27.5 fantasy points in four of his last five, and he'd only need 25.5 to return satisfactory value at his salary. His opponent, the Jazz, have given up the sixth-most FanDuel points to small forwards this season.

Were he to play, Eric Gordon ($4,200) could be a fantastic option, especially if Wall can't go. Gordon averaged 30.7 fantasy points in his first four outings before his production dropped off in his last two.

Power Forward

Power forward presents us with a number of viable options in the high-end range. Anthony Davis ($9,800), Domantas Sabonis ($9,200), Christian Wood ($8,100), and LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,200) each have their merits. AD has topped 50 fantasy points in three of his last five. Sabonis has posted at least 40.4 fantasy points in all but two of his efforts this season, and he's exceeded 46 five times. The Warriors are eighth-worst against power forward when adjusted for competition, according to Gdula. Wood has showcased quite the ceiling -- 47.9 or more in four of his seven outings -- but the Lakers rank as the toughest matchup for power forwards and second-toughest for centers. Finally, Aldridge has put up 37.5 and 37.8 in two of his last three, and he'd need 36 for 5x. In nearly 300 minutes with DeRozan off the court last season, Aldridge averaged 1.34 FanDuel points per minute. Though you can certainly justify exposure to all four if you're building more than a couple of lineups, I'd fade Wood and Davis in favor of the other two.

Our model's second-best projected value on the entire slate is Trey Lyles ($3,600). Lyles posted 20 FanDuel points in 35 minutes of action on Sunday. Both he and Aldridge should benefit from the fact that the Thunder are ceding the third-most fantasy points to power forwards this season, per FantasyPros.

The Cavs are surrendering the fifth-most real-life points and the most three-pointers to power forwards, which brings Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,500) firmly into play. Bojan's volatility is not for the faint of heart, though at his salary, he could go a long way toward winning you some cash. Bogdanovic has posted at least 27.5 fantasy points in three of his last eight outings, though he also managed just 11.1 or fewer in four of the other five. Our model has him posting 23.3 fantasy points tonight and returning a value mark of 6.23.

Center

We've got Nikola Jokic ($11,400) and Andre Drummond ($9,800) on the slate, so we have to start there. Jokic comes in with a salary of $1,000 more than any other player on the slate, so including him in any roster construction won't be easy. But is it worth it? Well, the Brooklyn Nets do rank as the fifth-best matchup for centers, according to Gdula. Meanwhile, Jokic has topped 60 FanDuel points four times already this season -- that kind of upside is not easy to find. And, given that the Nuggets have the highest implied total on the slate, Jokic should have plenty of opportunity for production. At the very least, the Serbian is worth including in a couple of rosters. As for Drummond, he faces a Jazz team that's ceded the eighth-fewest fantasy points to the center position this season. Drummond would need 49 FanDuel points just to return 5x, and that's a number he's only gotten to once in his last seven games.
(Update: Drummond is questionable for tonight's matchup.)

If you're shopping for value at center, your best option might just be Al Horford ($5,500). Horford has posted at least 25 FanDuel points in all but one game this season, though he's surpassed 27.5 just twice, and that's what we would need for him to pay off his salary. In other words, Horford is a relatively safe option without much of a ceiling. You can also throw a dart at Marc Gasol ($3,800) and pray that you hit. Gasol has eclipsed 20 fantasy points in five of his last nine outings. On the season, the Rockets are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing centers, which certainly helps Gasol's outlook.