NBA

NBA Betting Guide for 1/11/21: Finding Discrepancies in 3 Over/Unders

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 Jan 11th, 2021
Unders have been hitting a lot to start the season, but two recommendations are on overs for tonight.

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games virtually every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)

Phoenix Suns at Washington Wizards

numberFire's algorithm is pretty heavy on some bets tonight. One of them is on the over in this game, which we rate as a three-star bet out of five. The over at 229.5 is 61.9% likely to hit tonight, even with the potential offensive issues for the Washington Wizards, who will be without both Russell Westbrook and Thomas Bryant.

Without those two on the court -- but with Bradley Beal -- the Wizards have an offensive rating of 110.3 this season over 87 possessions to star the season. It's a small sample, but it's far from damning to be a league-average offense over nearly a full game's worth of possessions. The Phoenix Suns, meanwhile, are fifth in estimated offensive rating to start the season. So that checks out.

The betting trends also favor the over -- heavily. Per oddsFire, 72% of the tickets are on the over in this game, and 86% of the money is, too. That indicates not only heavy public backing but also a disproportionate amount of money versus tickets. The trends and algorithm agree on the over at 229.5.

New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks

I've recommended a lot of unders to start the season, and 54.1% of games thus far have hit their closing under, based on FanDuel Sportsbook odds. Anyway, here's another over.

The New Orleans Pelicans and Dallas Mavericks are actually both top-six in estimated defensive rating to start the season, which is a bit of an issue here. However, the longer-term data is not quite as promising: both defenses are roughly NBA average when adjusted for opponent since the start of last season.

Virtually every bet and dollar on this game so far is on the over, and numberFire's algorithm rates the over as a five-star bet out of five. It's 72.5% likely to hit. The median total in our simulations is 230.5 points, and the posted over/under at FanDuel Sportsbook is only 218.5. There's a lot of wiggle room on this one to hit the over.

Indiana Pacers at Sacramento Kings

I have to stay true to myself and the early-season trends and find an under. And, once again, the betting trends and algorithms agree on one of them.

There's a big discrepancy between the betting tickets (46% on the under) and the money (a very nice 69%), which indicates smart money is on the under.

numberFire's algorithm projects a final median score of 108.2 to 107.1, a point total of 215.3 points. The posted total at FanDuel Sportsbook is 227.0 points. My betting model, based on long-term and opponent-adjusted data, anticipated an over/under of a lowly 212.7 points, similar to numberFire's projected total.

numberFire rates the under as a four-star bet out of five (70.8% likely), good for an anticipated return of 35.2%.