3 NBA FanDuel Tournament Plays to Target on 1/11/21
"One cannot be betrayed if one has no people."
- Kobayashi (The Usual Suspects)
How many times have we been burned by the chalk in NBA DFS?
When it's time to start building GPP lineups, especially for NBA tournaments, the fundamental choice to make is whether or not to buy into the chalk plays of the slate. More than any other sport, the popular plays in the NBA are popular for a reason. Where we often get into trouble in tournaments, however, is when we begin to blindly trust a slate's chalk.
This regular piece will focus on tournaments looking through the lens of the projected chalk plays -- the usual suspects -- of that night's games. In an attempt to understand the context of the slate, this column will look at lower-owned plays that help you gain ownership leverage against the competition.
Monday's slate is a reasonable eight games, so it should offer plenty of opportunities to differentiate off of the chalk plays of the night. Let's dig in to see where we can pivot.
At first glance, there will be three mega-chalk plays in cash games and tournaments: Bradley Beal, Joel Embiid, and Tyrese Maxey. Any differentiation from these guys is going to immediately give you leverage, so there is no need to dig too deep for off-the-wall plays tonight.
Guard
Damyean Dotson ($5,200) - Dotson has an identical salary to Maxey tonight, but his roster percentage might be 20% of what Maxey sees? The Cleveland Cavaliers have already ruled out Darius Garland and list Collin Sexton as questionable for their matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies, opening up a potentially huge opportunity for Dotson.
This was the same situation that allowed Dotson to put up 41 FanDuel points with a 21% usage rate against a tough Milwaukee Bucks team on Saturday. Tonight against the Grizzlies, Dotson faces a team that allows the eighth-most FanDuel points to the point guard position and is merely middle of the pack in defensive rating, opponents' field goal percentage, and opponents' points per game.
In a competitive game environment with a tight two-point spread, Dotson is an easy way to fade the Maxey chalk -- but some exposure to both is highly advisable.
Forward
RJ Barrett ($6,900) - At what point do we just start playing Barrett regularly simply because no one in the league plays more minutes, he produces across the entire box score, and the New York Knicks are surprisingly a good team?
At almost 38.5 minutes per night, Barrett plays one minute more per game than any guard in the league, and he and Julius Randle have developed into a potent inside-outside duo that is giving opponents trouble every night. Barrett admits he is working on his consistency this season -- being an everyday producer -- and that work has materialized so far.
Three of his past five games have topped 35 FanDuel points (5x salary tonight), and the others were simply because he was capped at 33 minutes both games. He ranks top three on the Knicks in points, steals, assists, and rebounds per game while only averaging 1.7 turnovers per game. In fact, Barrett is in the top 12 of all guards with at least 30 minutes per game with just a 7.2% turnover rate. If minutes equal money in NBA DFS, Barrett needs to start showing up on our radars more frequently.
Center
Andre Drummond ($9,900) - Recommending two Cavaliers is likely the nail in the coffin of this column's viability, but with how shorthanded they will be tonight (without Kevin Love, Garland, and possibly Sexton) there will be plenty of opportunities for Drummond to approach his ceiling, similar to his last game (26 points, 24 rebounds, 59 FanDuel points).
The Grizzlies will have Jonas Valanciunas back in action tonight after his mysterious disappearance last game, but that should barely provide a road bump for Drummond. The Grizz allow the 10th-most defensive rebounds to their opponents and allow the 7th-most FanDuel points to opposing centers this year. The icing on the cake is the 6.0 blocks per game Memphis allows -- the fifth-most in the league.
Even with the increased opportunity, Larry Nance Jr. is averaging the lowest rebound rate of his career (9.0%), leaving Drummond to gobble up all the boards. As long as this trend continues, we should continue to see the double-double streak continue (currently at 10 games).
At a salary $200 more expensive than Embiid, Drummond looks to come in with a much lower roster percentage in tournaments.
