NBA

NBA Betting Guide: Saturday 1/9/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Orlando Magic at Dallas Mavericks

Mavs -5.0: 3-Star Rating out of 5
Mavs Moneyline (-245): 5-Star Rating out of 5

The Orlando Magic came into last night's game against the Houston Rockets at 6-2 and tied for second place in the Eastern Conference. They did not look like a team with those credentials when they stepped onto the court, however. The Magic fell behind by 29 at the half en route to a 42-point loss, their first 40-point loss since November 18, 2017.

The Magic will look to bounce back tonight on no rest, but our model indicates they're in for another tough outing, this time against the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavs started the season just 1-3. Since then, they've gone 3-1, with all of their wins coming against 2020 playoff teams.

The Mavs' rise has come with better play from Luka Doncic, who did not look like himself in the first few games. He put up a respectable -- albeit underwhelming-for-him -- line of 23.8 points, 5.8 boards, 6.3 assists in December. Since the calendar turned to 2021, he's been lighting it up to the tune of 32.7, 13.3, and 10.3. While his 29.5% three-point percentage this month isn't great, it looks Curry-esque compared to the 9.5% he averaged in December.

The Magic were abysmal as underdogs on no rest last season, going 1-9 straight up (SU) and getting outscored by an average of 8.3 points. They were 4-5-1 against the spread (ATS) in those contests, failing to cover by an average of 1.9 points. The Mavericks went 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS last season as favorites against opponents who were on no rest.

Our model likes the Mavericks to continue their recent hot play and come out of tonight's game with a 10.4-point victory. We give them an 82.9% chance of winning and a 65.0% chance of covering the 5.5-point spread. We mark the bets as five- and three-star bets, respectively.

Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets

Under 228.0: 4-Star Rating out of 5

It's too early to say that the Charlotte Hornets and Atlanta Hawks have turned their teams around from abysmal 2019-20 seasons, but the early indications are that they've both made big strides, especially on the defensive end of the floor.

Last year, the Hornets and Hawks ranked 25th and 28th, respectively, in defensive rating. Teams had effective field goal percentages of 54.6% and 54.3%, respectively, against them, and both squads allowed an offensive rebounding percentage of more than 29%. This season, however, they've both shown major strides to shoring up those holes.

The Hornets are 12th in defensive rating this season, and the Hawks are not far behind at 15th. The Hawks are ranked second in opponent effective field goal percentage (49.7%). The defensive rebounding as improved for both, too, as their offensive rebounding percentage allowed has dropped to 27.2% (Charlotte) and 26.4% (Atlanta).

Despite their improvements early on in 2020-21, their totals have averaged a robust 226.6 points. Combined, the over is just 5-12 (29.4%) in their games thus far. The over hit 52.3% of the time in their games last season. The teams met this past Wednesday. Despite a career-high 44 points from Gordon Hayward, these two combined to score just 196 points in a Hornets win.

We expect the under to hit again when they clash tonight. We have the teams projected to combine for 217.2 points -- well below tonight's 228.0-point total. We give the under a 69.4% chance of hitting and mark the bet as a four-star play.