3 NBA FanDuel Studs to Target on 1/6/21

Basketball is the most consistent sport for daily fantasy purposes.

A top slugger in baseball will have his fair share of 0-for-4 days, and an elite fantasy football player is at risk of having games where his team's offense as a whole is shut down. A high-salaried NBA stud is generally going to get his, though. With so many possessions in a game providing opportunities to produce, top fantasy basketball options will be posting high scores just about every night.

While this consistency puts us in a good position to identify top plays, it also means you can't afford to miss when you're paying a heavy salary to roster someone. Even with strong value plays in your lineup, getting a dud from a stud is likely going to leave your lineup lacking.

Let's get right into it and look at which top players should be the focal points of your lineups today.

Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers

FanDuel Salary: $9,900

Yesterday, I mentioned that Nikola Jokic had a ton of added value because of opportunity cost: no other center projected to be in the ballpark of Jokic's median outcome. Similar logic applies again today with Joel Embiid, whose Philadelphia 76ers draw the Washington Wizards, a rematch from the Sixers' opening game. In that outing, Embiid posted 48.8 FanDuel points, stemming from a 10-of-17 shooting night for a season-high 29 points plus 14 rebounds, 2 assists, and a block.

numberFire projects Embiid for another big line: 33.5 minutes, 16.9 field goal attempts, 26.3 points, 12.2 boards, 3.2 assists, and 2.7 combined blocks and steals for 51.6 FanDuel points on a 27.8% usage rate.

The 76ers are 7.0-point favorites in a game with a high total of 231.0 points, giving them an implied team total of 119.0 points (tied for second-best of the night). And another thing? The Wizards rank 29th in opponent-adjusted FanDuel points per minute allowed to centers since the start of last season.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF, Milwaukee Bucks

FanDuel Salary: $11,400

There's also big opportunity cost on Giannis Antetokounmpo, which feels like it's often the case given the state of power forward right now. Antetokounmpo projects for 53.7 FanDuel points, which is 13.1 more points than the third-highest projected power forward. The slate is so large that we'll undoubtedly have value to get to Antetokounmpo despite the slate-high salary.

The main concern for him is, as usual, blowout risk. The Milwaukee Bucks are 13.5-point favorites over the Detroit Pistons. The Pistons are 26th in opponent-adjusted FanDuel points per minute allowed to power forwards since the start of 2019-20, so that helps alleviate some of those concerns -- he should be very efficient in this game. Just two days ago, these teams met, and Antetokounmpo played 36.1 minutes and took 24 shot attempts, resulting in 43 points. That, plus 9 rebounds, 4 assists, and a block, led to 59.8 FanDuel points.

We project Giannis to put up 1.71 FanDuel points per minute (he's at 1.65 FanDuel points per minute on the season). That projected rate means he can get to 50.0 FanDuel points in 29.2 minutes, and we project him for 31.4. Again, yes, there's blowout risk, but we should still get a floor game from him, and if it sticks close, then he could provide a ceiling that is untouchable by other power forwards.

Trae Young, PG, Atlanta Hawks

FanDuel Salary: $9,400

Point guard is pretty deep at the top, but if you want a high-floor, high-ceiling stud, then Trae Young fits the bill, particularly at this salary. He has had at least 16 field goal attempts in five of seven games, and we project him to put up 19.0 shots tonight.

His matchup against the Charlotte Hornets is, perhaps, a little tougher than it seems at first glance, as they've been top-10 against opposing point guards when adjusting for players they've faced.

However, that shouldn't outweigh the game environment: it has a slate-high 232.0-point total with a 6.0-point spread in favor of the Atlanta Hawks. Of the four games with totals of at least 226.5 points, that's the narrowest spread we have.

Further, the new-look Hornets have really upped their pace (they're 6th in offensive seconds per play), which should help eke out extra possessions for Young and the Hawks, who are currently 14th in offensive seconds per play.