NBA

3 NBA FanDuel Tournament Plays to Target on 1/5/21

"One cannot be betrayed if one has no people."

- Kobayashi (The Usual Suspects)

How many times have we been burned by the chalk in NBA DFS?

When it's time to start building GPP lineups, especially for NBA tournaments, the fundamental choice to make is whether or not to buy into the chalk plays of the slate. More than any other sport, the popular plays in the NBA are popular for a reason. Where we often get into trouble in tournaments, however, is when we begin to blindly trust a slate's chalk.

This regular piece will focus on tournaments looking through the lens of the projected chalk plays -- the usual suspects -- of that night's games. In an attempt to understand the context of the slate, this column will look at lower-owned plays that help you gain ownership leverage against the competition.

Tuesday's slate has only five games, but it should still offer plenty of opportunities to differentiate off of the chalk plays of the night. Let's dig in to see where we can pivot.

Guard

Damian Lillard ($9,200) - It's going to be interesting to see how high Kyrie Irving's roster percentage is tonight. With Kevin Durant on the shelf for at least a week, that means 34 minutes, 18 shots and 30% usage is up for grabs for the Brooklyn Nets. The most likely candidates to fill that gap are Irving and Caris LeVert, and they are likely to be very popular.

For a pivot from Kyrie, Lillard looks like a good tournament option, particularly since he has "struggled" in the early season. Considering Lillard is shooting just 42% this campaign and still is averaging more than 40 FanDuel points per game, tonight looks like a good opportunity for one of Lillard's ceiling games.

The matchup between Lillard and Coby White should be an old-fashioned shootout as the Portland Trail Blazers and Chicago Bulls are the two worst teams against point guards this year. Both teams allow more than 55 FanDuel points per game to the position. We have seen Lillard rise to these occasions before, and in a shootout, I am going to place my bets on the big guns of Lillard.

Forward

Keldon Johnson ($6,500) - A matchup against Kawhi Leonard isn't usually where I like to invest my DFS funds. But players slightly below this salary like Kyle Anderson ($6,300; 32 FanDuel points per game) and Otto Porter ($5,300; 27 FanDuel points per game) have been so popular lately, Johnson is likely to go overlooked despite scoring more than 33 FanDuel points per game in four of six games and sporting a 22% usage rate and 1.12 FanDuel points per minute.

LaMarcus Aldridge is questionable for Tuesday's game, and his absence would go a long way toward Johnson being a viable play. In the three games Aldridge has missed this year, Johnson averages 12 shots, 18 points, and seven rebounds per contest.

Center

Jonas Valanciunas ($6,800) - Much like point guard, center has a clear direction tonight with Nikola Jokic going up against the overmatched Minnesota Timberwolves. At an almost $4,000 salary discount for Jokic, J-Val should be able to provide a large chunk of Jokic's production at a fraction of the price.

Valanciunas ranks third among all centers on this slate with 1.19 FanDuel points per minute, 36.0 FanDuel points per game, and a 22% usage rate. Due to three straight lackluster games, he has seen his salary drop from $7,700 to $6,800, and with his mini-streak of games under 30 FanDuel points, there will likely not be many DFS managers heading here today.

Neither Marc Gasol nor Montrezl Harrell rank in the top 40 for defensive rating among centers this season, so while a contest against the Los Angeles Lakers will be a tough game for Memphis Grizzlies to win, J-Val can still get his production based on the matchup.