FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Monday 1/4/21

If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's nine-game slate, which locks at 7:00 PM Eastern Time.

Point Guard

Tonight's point guard slate is loaded at each salary range, and the upper tier is no exception. Luka Doncic ($11,100) comes in as the third-most expensive player on this slate, and his status for tonight's game is still a question mark. numberFire's models don't have him returning great value even if he does suit up. Stephen Curry ($9,500) is coming in fresh off a 69-FanDuel-point performance in a game in which he recorded a career-high 62 real-life points. Curry would need 47.5 fantasy points to achieve 5X value (or 5.0 fantasy points for every $1,000 in salary), and that's a number he's surpassed in two of his last four. However, with a hoard of players banged-up for the Atlanta Hawks, Trae Young ($9,400) might be the best high-end option. Young has topped 47 (what he needs for 5X) in three of his six games this season.

If you don't want to spend up as much at point while still chasing that sky-high ceiling, you can look towards De'Aaron Fox ($8,000). Fox is facing a Golden State Warriors team that's ceding the second-most real-life points to opposing points guards, according to FantasyPros. Fox would need 40 for 5X at tonight's salary, and he's exceeded that in four of his six outings this year -- including 48.1 and 50.0 in two of his last three. In that same salary range, it's tough to ignore what John Wall ($8,500) has done in his first two games as a member of the Houston Rockets. Wall has recorded 43.7 and 51.8 fantasy points, and he'd need 42.5 for 5X.

Now, let's move on to the slate-winning value plays. With Jeff Teague doubtful to suit up tonight, Payton Pritchard ($3,700) is definitely a play to consider. Pritchard would need 18.5 for 5X, and he's gone past that in four of his last five -- and that was with Teague in the lineup. At that same salary, Michael Carter-Williams ($3,700) is our model's top-projected value at the position with Evan Fournier looking iffy. MCW saw 31.2 minutes on Saturday without Fournier in the lineup, and he's topped 18.5 in three of his last four. If you don't want to go bargain-bin shopping, your best option might be Elfrid Payton ($5,300). Payton is averaging 32 FanDuel points over his last four, and the New York Knicks' injury report is quite lengthy.

Shooting Guard

The mid-range is the bread and butter of the shooting guard position tonight, so let's start there. Marcus Smart ($5,700) should also stand to benefit if Teague were to miss tonight's action. Smart has topped 30 FanDuel points with ease in five of his last six, and he'd need just 28.5 for 5X tonight. With Tyrese Haliburton out for the Sacramento Kings, Buddy Hield ($5,700) should continue to see an uptick in minutes and usage. Hield has seen more than 37 minutes in consecutive games, though he's exceeded 26.5 FanDuel points just once in his last five. Nevertheless, our model has him projected as the second-best value at the position.

If Darius Garland (shoulder) were to miss tonight's affair, Collin Sexton ($7,100) comes very much into play. Sexton's usual scoring-heavy role limits his upside, though that could change if he'd have to be more of a distributor. For $600 more, numberFire's algorithm has Jimmy Butler ($7,700) exceeding 5X with ease, projecting him for 41.5 FanDuel points tonight. Having not played since New Year's, Butler should be fresh for this outing. Tied for the slate's highest salary, James Harden ($11,400) is squarely in play, though our model has him projected for 52.2 FanDuel points (4.8 fewer than what he needs for 5X).

If you're shopping in the clearance aisle, our models suggest going for either Delon Wright ($4,400) or Reggie Bullock ($3,600). Due to Josh Jackson being doubtful, Wright could find himself with a larger-than-usual role. Wight has recorded 34 or more FanDuel points twice this season and is numberFire's second-best projected value on the entire slate -- his floor is quite low, though. Meanwhile, despite averaging 37.5 minutes and 22.6 fantasy points over his last three, Bullock is just $100 more than the minimum.

Small Forward

With seemingly half of Atlanta's roster in question on a nightly basis, Bogdan Bogdanovic ($4,700) is firmly in play. Bogdanovic would need 23.5 to reach 5X value at tonight's salary, and he's surpassed that number in three of his six games. The Hawks having the third-highest implied total on tonight's slate certainly helps the odds of him getting there. His teammate, De'Andre Hunter ($5,400), might be an even better play. Hunter would need a heftier 27 FanDuel points for 5X, though he's exceeded that total in four of his last five contests.

Shooting guard is definitely not the position to spend up at, according to numberFire's algorithm. Of the seven players with salaries at $6.3K or higher, our model doesn't have a single one exceeded 4.4X value. Instead, we can look toward RJ Barrett ($6,100) for some ceiling. Barrett has had outings with 42.1, 33.6, and 34.5 in three of his six efforts this season, and he'd need 30.5 for 5X.

With T.J. Warren out, Justin Holiday ($4,000) should not go overlooked. Holiday has surpassed 25 minutes played in four of his last five, and he's eclipsed 21 FanDuel points in three of his last four -- he'd need 20 to achieve 5X. If we're looking for some upside while not breaking the bank, Kelly Oubre ($5,200) is undoubtedly an option. The 25-year-old has equaled or bettered 30 FanDuel points in three of his last four, and he'd need just 26 to attain 5X at his salary.

Power Forward

Power forward is where some studs at various different salary points come into play. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400) comes in as the most expensive player on the slate, but he's also our model's top-projected scorer. Giannis hasn't been his efficient self to start the season, though he's still managed 64.6 and 65.4 FanDuel points in his last two. He's tough to ignore when the Milwaukee Bucks have an implied total that's 3.5 points higher than any team on the slate.

If you don't want to spend up for Giannis, our models like both Jayson Tatum ($9,100) and Julius Randle ($8,100). Tatum has often played second-fiddle to Jaylen Brown's hot start this season, though he has topped 51 in two of his last four. He'd need 45.5 (which he's trumped in four of his seven outings) to obtain 5X. Randle is our model's preferred play of the two, and he might have one of the best floor/ceiling combinations on the slate. Randle has yet to score fewer than 35.5 FanDuel points in any of his six games, and he's recorded 57.3 and 52.9 in two of his last four. It doesn't hurt that he's facing a Hawks defense that's surrendered the third-most fantasy points to power forwards this season.

I've mentioned the Hawks' decimated roster before, and that brings each of their top players into play on tonight's slate -- that includes John Collins ($6,800). Collins has certainly not dominated this season, but he needs just 34 fantasy points for 5X, and he's posted 45.5 and 35.6 in two of his last three. Our model has Collins projected for 41.1, making him the second-best value at the position. numberFire's top-projected value on the entire slate is Marvin Bagley III ($4,800). Bagley needs 24 FanDuel points for 5X, and he's eclipsed that, albeit barely, in three of his six outings. Our model's projection for the 21-year-old is 32.4.

Center

Unlike some of the other positions, penny-pinching at center is not highly recommended. Each of Joel Embiid ($9,900), Nikola Vucevic ($8,300), and Clint Capela ($6,500) are projected to post better than 5.2X value. The Charlotte Hornets are one of the most generous teams to opposing big men, and our model has Embiid projected for 52 FanDuel points in that matchup. Vuce has topped 47.5 fantasy points in three of his last five games, and he'd need just 40.5 for 5X tonight. Meanwhile, Capela is fresh off a season-best 47.2 fantasy-point performance and is facing a Knicks team allowing the most fantasy points to opposing centers.

If you are being stingy, Tristan Thompson ($4,300) could be the way to go. Thompson has put up 26.5, 24.8, and 25.7 in his last three, and he'd need just 21.5 to reach 5X.