5 NBA FanDuel Value Plays to Target on 12/29/20
One of the keys to finding success in daily fantasy basketball is uncovering potential value plays. If you're looking to roster a stud player or two, you need to consider squeezing in one of these lower-salaried options into your lineup.
Let's take a look at five players who can help fill in the gaps in your lineup.
Naz Reid, PF, Minnesota Timberwolves ($4,500)
Last season, we saw a similar situation when KAT was out for about a month, which made Reid a popular value play. When KAT was off the court last season, Reid held a 24.3% usage rate and produced 1.13 FanDuel points per minute. That is consistent production for a backup center, who flashed that on Sunday against the Los Angeles Lakers with 28 FanDuel points in 27 minutes.
Tonight's matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers has an over/under set at 227.5 points, which is the second-highest on the entire slate. This should make Reid a popular value play given his consistency, production, and overall game environment.
Larry Nance, SF, Cleveland Cavaliers ($5,500)
Nance got the start in the Cleveland Cavaliers' season opener and finished with a very impressive 53.6 FanDuel points, which came from 13 points, 13 rebounds, and 8 assists. A huge start to the season which was followed by two games with 27 FanDuel points or fewer, but that wasn't unexpected. Kevin Love started both of those games for the Cavaliers, taking the offensive usage away from Nance. Oddly enough, this is somewhat good to see. When Love plays, he gets the usage, when he is out, Nance gets the usage.
This means we can be confidently looking to Nance any time Love is out, just as we saw last season. When Love was off the court last year, Nance held an 18.2% usage rate and produced 1.01 FanDuel points per minute. This is in line with numberFire's projections tonight, which have Nance going for 34.01 minutes and 33.8 FanDuel points -- making him the second-best value option at small forward on this 10-game slate.
Tyler Herro, SF, Miami Heat ($4,500)
Tyler Herro is the third-best value play on the entire slate according to numberFire's projections -- let's talk about it.
Jimmy Butler is currently listed as questionable for the Miami Heat and that opens up plenty of usage in their offense. Butler holds a 25.5% usage rate to start the season and that will be up for grabs tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks, where the over/under is set at 222.5 points. Herro has been in the starting lineup in each of Miami's first two games, playing 32 minutes in each contest, and taking a total of 24 field goal attempts. That is fantastic to see for a player who is only $4.5K and set for a larger role in the offense.
If we look back to last season, Herro saw a 2.3% increase in his usage with Butler out, boosting him up to 24.2% -- which was the second-highest on the team. This is reflected in numberFire's projections, which have Herro going for 29.0 FanDuel points in 32.09 minutes. While the matchup against the Bucks is, historically, thought to be tougher, Milwaukee has given up 122 points or more in two of their three games this season. Expect plenty of production from Herro tonight.
Thomas Bryant, C, Washington Wizards ($5,200)
This game has an over/under set at a staggering 237 points, which is the highest on the slate by 10 points. This is the clear spot to target for fantasy production since both teams like to push the pace and don't play defense. That is the ideal mix for fantasy scoring, and getting exposure here via a value play is a great call. That value option tonight could be Wizards' center Thomas Bryant, who is the best value play at center and the best value play on the entire slate, according to numberFire's projections.
The Bulls are currently allowing 43.94 FanDuel points per game to opposing centers, which is the second-worst in the league. Bryant has a modest 19.5% usage rate to start the season while producing 0.91 FanDuel points per minute.
Elfrid Payton, PG, New York Knicks ($4,800)
For the Knicks, Alec Burks is listed as doubtful, Immanuel Quickley is out, Austin Rivers is out, Dennis Smith is out, and Obi Toppin is out. Excuse me? We are three games into the season and they are set to have five players missing, three of which play point guard. That should secure plenty of minutes for Payton tonight, who has played 22, 18, and 29 minutes to start the season.
numberFire's projections have Payton playing 29.37 minutes and producing a very solid 29.8 FanDuel points. That production makes him the top overall value play at point guard tonight and the fifth-best among all positions. Even though this game against the Cleveland Cavaliers only has an over/under set at 215 points, Payton is in for plenty of scoring in this matchup.