NBA
Daily Fantasy NBA Adjusted Matchups and Pace for 12/22/20

Matchups matter in daily fantasy NBA, and it can be hard to keep everything -- pace, defensive rating, individual matchups -- tidy, so I wanted to fix that by dumping all the data into one place for ease of use.

So every day, I'll be posting some information on each game for the NBA main slate.

That'll include things like opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings for each team. I'll also look at opponent-adjusted paces based on the team-level as well.

And to go a step further, I'll provide defense-versus-position (DvP) values based on FanDuel points per minute allowed to each position. The way that'll work is to adjust on the individual level. This means looking at each player's total fantasy points per minute mark to figure out an expected output in a game and comparing it to what actually happened. Holding a superstar and a role player to the same FanDuel-point-per-minute mark isn't quite the same. These values will adjust for expectation.

Because these stats don't stabilize that quickly, I'll blend 2019-20 and 2020-21 stats. For the first slate, all data comes from 2019-20.

Adjusted Offensive Rating and Opponent Defensive Rating

This table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each. Teams are sorted by implied team total.

TeamOppOver/
Under
SpreadImplied
Total
Adj.
Offensive
Rating
RankOpp Adj.
Defensive
Rating
Rank
BKNGS230.5-7.0118.75105.523112.926
LALLAC223.5-3.0113.25113.69107.46
GSBKN230.57.0111.7599.230109.513
LACLAL223.53.0110.25116.02105.93

Adjusted Pace and Expected Pace, Offensive Rating, and Points

This table shows each team's adjusted pace and adjusted opponent pace to find expected pace. Expected offensive rating combines each team's adjusted offensive rating and the opponent's adjusted defensive rating. Combining expected pace and expected offensive rating gives us expected points. Teams are sorted by implied team total.

TeamOppAdj.
Pace
RankOpp
Adj.
Pace
RankExpected
Pace
Expected
Offensive
Rating
Expected
Points
BKNGS105.68101.015105.2108.4114.1
LALLAC101.413102.710102.7111.1114.1
GSBKN101.015105.68105.298.9104.1
LACLAL102.710101.413102.7111.9114.9

Player-Level Adjusted FanDuel Points per Minute by Position

This table shows each defense's FanDuel-point-per-minute mark adjusted for individual opponents faced. League-wide ranks are in parenthesis.

DefenseOffensePGSGSFPFC
BKNGS0.94 (9)0.89 (25)0.84 (3)0.93 (3)1.11 (21)
LALLAC0.95 (21)0.89 (27)0.84 (5)0.96 (10)1.15 (30)
GSBKN0.96 (26)0.86 (5)0.85 (14)0.95 (8)1.10 (15)
LACLAL0.99 (30)0.90 (30)0.86 (18)0.93 (2)1.10 (16)

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