NBA Finals Betting Guide: Tuesday 10/6/20

What bet does our model like for Game 4 of the NBA Finals?

Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Heat +7.5: 3-Star Rating out of 5

Behind an incendiary 40-point, 11-board, 13-assist performance from Jimmy Butler, the Miami Heat stole a game back from the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. The Heat will look to even the series tonight. While our models don't see them doing that (they're projecting a 2.1-point win for the Lakers), they do see them covering the 7.5-point spread.

Not only did Butler go off, but he and his teammates held Anthony Davis to just 15 points, just the 10th time The Brow has scored 15 or fewer points in a game this season -- the Lakers have gone just 4-6 in those games and 3-7 against the spread (ATS).

Sunday marked the Lakers' 12th double-digit loss of the season. They haven't bounced back as well as you may have thought. In games following those losses, the Lakers are a modest 7-5 (5-7 ATS) and have lost three of their past four in those situations.

LA is 5-11 ATS in their past 16 games after scoring 105 or fewer points (they are 11-13 ATS overall in that situation this season). Miami is 17-11-1 ATS after allowing 105 or fewer points. They're 5-3 ATS as underdogs in those games, which includes covering against the Lakers in their December meeting.

The Heat are now 8-4 ATS at "home" in the bubble, 5-3 ATS as underdogs in those games. The Lakers are 5-5-1 ATS as the "away" team in Orlando. The Lakers are 14-17-2 ATS this season as favorites in games with totals set below 220 points. The Heat are 10-9-1 ATS as dogs in those games.

If you do follow our model's advice and bet on Miami to cover, you will be in the minority tonight. Currently, 74% of bets and 85% of the money are on the Lakers to cover the spread. We give Miami a 66.4% chance of covering. With an expected return of $126.80 for every $100 wagered, we have a bet on the Heat to cover as a three-star play.