NBA

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Friday 9/25/20

Elisha Twerski  —  @ElishaTwerski Sep 25th, 2020
How should we value Tyler Herro fresh off his monster performance in Game 4?

If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach -- and that's especially the case now.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's take a look at who you should target on Friday's one-game slate between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat, which locks at 8:30pm.

MVP Considerations

Jayson Tatum (FanDuel Salary: $16,000), Jimmy Butler ($14,500), Bam Adebayo ($15,500), Kemba Walker ($11,500), Jaylen Brown ($12,500), and Gordon Hayward ($10,000) -- those are the six players with a ceiling projection greater than 40 FanDuel points. Marcus Smart ($10,000) isn't far behind at 39.44.

Tatum continues to dominate rostership in the MVP slot, this time posting a 45.3 roster percentage in that spot in Game -- the next closest was Bam at 27.8%. Of course, Tatum was the highest fantasy scorer in that game, so it's not as if that busted. I don't hate the idea of going back to Tatum in Game 5 -- his 31.5 usage rate in Game 4 was the highest he's seen in the postseason.

It's not very contrarian, but I also like the idea of going back to Bam at MVP. In the first four games of this series, Bam has recorded 44.7, 46.0, 59.7, and 43.4 FanDuel points. He clearly has the upside to be the highest scorer, but he also has the floor to not be a complete lineup killer.

If you'd like to be somewhat contrarian, you can go with Butler in that spot. Butler's 44.3 FanDuel points in Game 4 were a series-high, as was his 26.9% usage rate.

Brown has 50-point upside, and Hayward's return hasn't impacted Brown's minutes or usage. Some exposure is definitely worth it.

Don't be the person to overvalue Tyler Herro ($11,000). Herro scored 37 real-life points in Game 4, resulting in 47.7 fantasy points. However, it was the first time he'd eclipsed 22 real-life points in 14 games, so regression to the mean is likely forthcoming. That said, at $11.0K, Herro should have a spot in your lineup.

Utility Considerations

Let's start with Goran Dragic ($10,500). Outside of his Game 3 dud, Dragic has posted 45.4, 34.1, and 36.5 fantasy points this series. He's showcased the upside to even garner consideration for one of the top three slots.

In the same salary range, I like both Smart and Hayward. Hayward could see less rostership due to underwhelming performances in his first two games back, but if he can combine his Game 3 defensive stats with his Game 4 scoring, he'd be an elite value. Meanwhile, Smart is our model's second-best projected value on the slate.

Jae Crowder ($9,500) comes in under $10.0K, and he should see low rostership fresh of a 14.1-point dud. Prior to that, Crowder had posted at least 27.8 FanDuel points in seven straight.

Once again, our model's top-projected value is Daniel Theis ($8,000). Theis posted just 18.3 fantasy points in Game 4 -- it was his fifth consecutive game under 20.0 FanDuel points. However, he did see 30.5 minutes in that contest. The possibility of a spike performance in those kind of minutes is very real.

Finally, if you want to throw a total dart, you can insert Andre Iguodala ($6,500) into some lineups. After seeing a combined 14.6 minutes in Games 2 and 3, Iguodala was on the court for 27.3 minutes in Game 4, resulting in a 16.4-fantasy point output. You can throw him in there and hope he racks up steals and blocks.