NBA Betting Guide: Thursday 9/24/20

Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets

Nuggets +6.5: 4-Star Rating out of 5

The Los Angeles Lakers have a 2-1 series lead entering tonight's Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals, but they shouldn't feel comfortable with any series lead against the Denver Nuggets.

The Lakers predictably dominated the Nuggets in Game 1; Denver was coming off their second seven-game series in a row and had to face an LA team who was playing on five days of rest. With each passing game, however, Denver has started to figure out LA, and it's a pattern that Denver has followed throughout this postseason.

The Nuggets are now 6-3 straight up (SU) and 8-1 against the spread (ATS) when down in a series. They've covered in those games by an average of 11.1 points, and two of those three losses came by just two points, including Anthony Davis' buzzer-beating three the other night. Denver is 4-1 ATS as "home" underdogs this postseason.

The Lakers are 4-5 ATS this season as more than five-point favorites after losing by more than five in their previous game. Denver is 5-3 ATS as more than five-point underdogs following a win of more than five points.

LA is 1-3 ATS following losses in which LeBron James scored at least 25 points (he actually scored 30 in Game 3, which is just the second time all season he's scored 30-plus in a losing effort).

numberFire's models project Game 4 to go down to the wire, with the Lakers expected to eke out a win by 0.7 points. We give the Nuggets a 67.3% chance of covering the 6.5-point spread and mark the bet as a four-star play.