NBA Betting Guide: Tuesday 9/22/20

According to numberFire's model, how should you bet Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals?

Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers

Nuggets +6.5: 4-Star Rating out of 5

The Denver Nuggets were in position to even their series against the Los Angeles Lakers, up one with just 2.1 seconds left on the clock. Anthony Davis had other things in mind, however. The former Perspectives Charter Academy star nailed a three at the buzzer, putting the Nuggets into an 0-2 series hole.

The Nuggets are 6.5-point underdogs this evening. After the first game of a series this postseason, they are 10-3 against the spread (ATS). They're 6-1 ATS in those games as underdogs of more than five points.

Denver has gone 7-2-2 ATS this season after losing their previous two games. They're 4-1-1 ATS as underdogs in those contests. They are now 5-2 ATS at "home" in the playoffs.

They've gone 5-2 ATS this season as dogs in games following a 30-plus point outing from Nikola Jokic. They're 5-2-1 ATS as dogs following an away loss. The Lakers are 14-19 ATS this season when favored by more than five points after winning their previous two games.

numberFire's models have the Lakers projected to win by 0.8 points tonight, so expect another tight contest. We give the Nuggets a 67.3% chance of covering the 6.5-point spread. With an expected return of $128.50 for every $100 wagered, we mark a bet on the Nuggets as a four-star play.