NBA Betting Guide: Friday 9/18/20
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Nuggets +7.0: 4-Star Rating out of 5
The Lakers are 8-9 against the spread (ATS) this season as favorites playing on more rest than their opponents. Only four games have been played on five days of rest this season; the Lakers have played in two of those and are 0-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread. Over the last three seasons, teams playing on five days of rest have gone 2-11 SU and ATS.
The Nuggets entered their series against the Los Angeles Clippers 3-4 ATS as more than five-point underdogs. They were more than five-point underdogs in every game, going 5-2 ATS in the series. They are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games as underdogs.
Jamal Murray ended the Western Conference Semifinals with a flurry, dropping 40 for the fourth time this postseason. Only 10 other players in NBA history have had more 40-point games in one postseason. The Nuggets are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in games following the 40-point outbursts in his career.
numberFire's models do have the Lakers eking out a win, but we project them to do so by just 0.7 points. We give the Nuggets a 68.8% chance of covering the 7.0-point spread. With an expected return of $131.30 for every $100 wagered, we mark the bet as a four-star play.