NBA Betting Guide: Friday 9/18/20

Coming off another grueling series, how will the Nuggets perform against the Lakers in Game 1?

Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers

Nuggets +7.0: 4-Star Rating out of 5

The Lakers are 8-9 against the spread (ATS) this season as favorites playing on more rest than their opponents. Only four games have been played on five days of rest this season; the Lakers have played in two of those and are 0-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread. Over the last three seasons, teams playing on five days of rest have gone 2-11 SU and ATS.

The Nuggets entered their series against the Los Angeles Clippers 3-4 ATS as more than five-point underdogs. They were more than five-point underdogs in every game, going 5-2 ATS in the series. They are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games as underdogs.

Jamal Murray ended the Western Conference Semifinals with a flurry, dropping 40 for the fourth time this postseason. Only 10 other players in NBA history have had more 40-point games in one postseason. The Nuggets are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in games following the 40-point outbursts in his career.

numberFire's models do have the Lakers eking out a win, but we project them to do so by just 0.7 points. We give the Nuggets a 68.8% chance of covering the 7.0-point spread. With an expected return of $131.30 for every $100 wagered, we mark the bet as a four-star play.