FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Tuesday 9/15/20
The NBA playoffs keep churning on, as we've got a Game 7 and a Game 1 tonight.
If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach -- and that's especially the case now.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's take a look at who you should target on Tuesday's two-game slate -- likely the last two-game slate of the season -- which locks at 6:30 PM ET.
Welcome to the crapshoot that is the point guard position -- good luck finding value.
Our model's top-projected value at the position is Kemba Walker ($7,400). Kemba would need 37.0 fantasy points for 5X tonight, and he's exceeded that in 5 of his 11 postseason games, but he's also posted 32.8 or less five times. However, Kemba posted more than 37.6 just once in the series against the Toronto Raptors, and no team was stingier against opposing point guards than the Miami Heat -- so the matchup is not enticing.
Lou Williams ($5,500) is one I'd look toward to start my lineup. Lou is the cheapest of the viable options, and there's potential that he can return value. At $5.5K, Williams would need 27.5 FanDuel points to achieve 5X value (or 5.0 fantasy points for every $1,000 in salary) -- he's surpassed that only once this series (Game 2), though he came pretty close in Game 6, totaling 26.9.
I can't get up to the salary of Jamal Murray ($8,400). He's scored under 40.0 FanDuel points in four of the six games this series. He needs 42.0 for 5X tonight, and I'd rather spend elsewhere.
I'm not fading Paul George ($7,900). PG13 is our model's top-projected value at shooting guard, and it's for good reason. At $7.9K, he'd need 39.5 for 5X tonight -- he's surpassed that with ease in four of the last five games of this series. In fact, in his last two, George has dropped 51.2 and 59.7 FanDuel points. Embrace the chalk here.
Tyler Herro ($5,000) gets one of the more reasonable salaries on the slate. At $5.0K, he'd need 25.0 for 5X, and he topped that in three of the final four games against the Milwaukee Bucks. His teammate, Jimmy Butler ($8,000), can't be ignored. Butler posted outputs of 53.8 and 48.4 in two of the five games against Milwaukee, though he was at 36.0 or less in the other three.
Marcus Smart ($6,400) had performances of 36.5, 31.3, 60.3, and 36.0 in four of the seven games against Toronto -- he'd need 32.0 for 5X. His salary is reasonable.
It's Game 7, so there's no way I'm not rostering Kawhi Leonard ($10,600). Prior to a 49.1-point "dud" in Game 6, Leonard had posted 73.7 and 58.8 in his previous two. He's our top-projected scorer, and I wouldn't build many lineups without him.
In the final four games of the series against Milwaukee, Jae Crowder ($5,100) posted 32.2, 29.3, 29.5, and 30.7 FanDuel points. He'd need 25.5 for 5X tonight. I like the odds of him surpassing that.
If you want to pivot off Kawhi, Jaylen Brown ($7,800) would be a good start. Brown posted at least 39.6 fantasy points in five of the finals six games against Toronto, and he'd need 39.0 for 5X at tonight's salary.
Power forward has been one of Miami's most vulnerable positions in the bubble, as far as surrendering fantasy points are concerned -- they've allowed the fifth-most to the position since the seeding games began. That brings both Jayson Tatum ($9,800) and Daniel Theis ($5,600) into play. Tatum finished off the conference semis with performances of 65.3 and 59.6, which had led to him coming in at his highest salary of the season. Tatum also had four games with 40.0 or fewer fantasy points in that series, so we need to account for his floor. I'd rather pay up elsewhere, especially if I'm only doing a couple of lineups.
Meanwhile, Theis is our model's best-projected value at power forward. Theis averaged 27.9 FanDuel points through those seven games and posted at least 28.8 in four of them. He'd need 28.0 for 5X tonight. Theis posted 33.7 and 34.0 in two of his three games against Miami this season.
The matchup is not great for Bam Adebayo ($8,500), and I'd rather spend elsewhere.
Speaking of spending salary elsewhere, one way to do that is by rostering Nikola Jokic ($10,200). In the last five games of the series, Jokic has averaged 54.2 FanDuel points -- he'd need 51.0 for 5X. If you can find a way to save salary for Jokic, do it.
Given that Montrezl Harrell ($5,000) was a -19 in 15 minutes on Sunday, I'd say that Ivica Zubac ($4,700) could see a series-high in minutes in Game 7. For that reason, Zubac is our model's top-projected value on the entire slate. At $4.7, Zubac would need 23.5 for 5X -- our model has him surpassing 30.